2024 Betting Momentum With Former President Donald Trump

Posted on: October 8, 2024, 02:47h. 

Last updated on: October 8, 2024, 03:02h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More

Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.

The 2024 betting odds continue to shift in former President Donald Trump’s favor as Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign and President Joe Biden’s administration face mounting problems.

No betting exchange has facilitated more bets on the 2024 US election than Polymarket, a decentralized peer-to-peer wagering platform. As of this afternoon, October 8, more than $1.47 billion in bets on the November 5 outcome have been executed on Polymarket.

After Harris seemingly won the first and only debate she’ll face against Trump, the odds tilted in her favor. In the September debate’s aftermath, her implied odds of winning next month were as high as 52.3%. Trump’s stock fell to a low of 46.4%.

Other betting exchanges, including PredictIt and Smarkets, as well as the newly launched Kalshi political contract, have experienced similar movement in the former casino owner’s favor.

Mounting Problems

The recent major hurricanes have seemingly dealt a bad hand for the Harris campaign.

In late September, Hurricane Helene devastated much of the Southeastern United States. The Category 4 storm resulted in more than 200 deaths and is estimated to have caused almost $40 billion in damage.

While touring the devastation, Harris said the federal government would be providing impacted residents with $750. With the Biden administration and US Congress having sent Ukraine $175 billion since its war with Russia began in February 2022, Biden and Harris’ pledge of $750 per Helene survivor seemed woefully inadequate to many millions of Americans.

Rumors subsequently emerged that FEMA — the Federal Emergency Management Agency — is cash-strapped because Biden and Harris redirected the agency’s funds to support international efforts and/or border issues. FEMA publicly rejected those claims on its website on a page titled, “Hurricane Rumor Response.”

Harris has since embarked on a media tour, including stops at The View, Call Her Daddy podcast, Howard Stern, and 60 Minutes. The latter interview, conducted by Bill Whitaker, was perhaps most damning.

Whitaker pressed Harris about her changing policy positions, including loose immigration policies during much of the Biden administration.

It’s a longstanding problem. And solutions are at hand. And from day one, literally, we have been offering solutions,” Harris said.

While Harris tries to do damage control, the Trump campaign has rallied Republicans by bringing on billionaire Elon Musk. The tech tycoon and self-described defender of free speech attended this week’s Trump rally in Butler, Pa., the same site where Trump was nearly assassinated in July.

A second, possibly even more violent hurricane is approaching Florida’s western border. Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall around Tampa on Wednesday evening.

Overseas Odds

No legal sportsbook in the United States is allowed to take bets on political outcomes. The exchanges mentioned earlier in this story primarily allow bettors from outside the US, or operate in a gray zone where their legal standing has recently been questioned.

Overseas, sportsbooks are regulated to take political bets. Some of those high-street bookmakers also now think Trump is the 2024 favorite.

Since 1868, the presumed favorite of every US election except two has emerged victorious. The two exceptions were Harry Truman in 1948 and Trump in 2016.