2024 Odds: Trump and Harris Neck-and-Neck Following Party Conventions

Posted on: August 23, 2024, 02:59h. 

Last updated on: August 23, 2024, 02:59h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More
Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.

The 2024 odds for who will become the next president of the United States have former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in a dead heat.

Trump Harris 2024 odds president election
Vice President Kamala Harris accepts the Democratic Party’s nomination for president of the United States on Thursday, Aug. 22, 2024. Harris and her Republican challenger, former President Donald Trump, are neck-and-neck in the political betting markets. (Image: Getty)

The Democratic National Convention concluded last night with Harris formally accepting the party’s nomination for president. She was hand-picked by the party’s elite after President Joe Biden heeded calls to exit the race after concerns were raised about his mental fitness following a disastrous June debate against Trump.  

Thursday night was overshadowed by a teased surprise guest, with many expecting Beyonce, Taylor Swift, or even former Republican President George W. Bush endorsing the VP for a promotion. Harris gave an energetic speech about her upbringing but critics said it was short on policy pledges.

Harris’ post-convention boost could be offset by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. this afternoon announcing the suspension of his presidential campaign and endorsement of Trump. 

Latest Odds

There are just 73 days until Nov. 5, though early voting will begin across the nation in the coming weeks and months. As of today, Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in the minds of political bettors risking money on the 2024 outcome.

On Polymarket, a decentralized political wagering exchange that facilitates the buying and selling of election outcome shares, Trump’s stock is trading at 51 cents. Harris is a slight underdog at 48 cents, though just hours ago the two were deadlocked at 49 cents.

Polymarket says more than $710.5 million has been bet on the market. Winning shares are redeemed at a dollar each. Polymarket charges a small deposit and withdrawal fee to operate the exchange.

Smarkets, a similar online political wagering platform, has Harris’ implied odds slightly ahead of Trump’s at 50.5% to 49%. However, Smarkets’ 2024 election outcome market has traded less than $8.2 million.

Betfair, yet another peer-to-peer political betting network, has Trump and Harris each at even money.

Oddsmakers in the United Kingdom where betting on elections, both U.S. and U.K. elections, isn’t frowned upon but embraced, Harris and Trump have the same odds as of Friday afternoon.

William Hill, a leading sportsbook up and down high streets, has Harris and Trump at 10/11 (-110). The line implies odds of 52.48%, with a winning $100 bet netting $90.91.

As for the polls, the latest average compiled by Real Clear Politics has Harris up 48.4-46.9.

Political Wagering Crackdown 

The U.S. government has long opposed the facilitation of gambling on elections. As a result, state gaming regulators in jurisdictions where sports betting is allowed have prohibited their sportsbooks from including political lines.

Wagering exchanges have operated in a grey area stateside, but those days could soon end.

In May, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC), which in 2014 granted an online political wagering site a “No-Action Relief” letter suggesting the business would not face legal consequences for accepting wagers from U.S. customers, announced its change of heart in recommending that such exchanges be excluded from the marketplace.

The CTFC has taken a new approach to political wagering since Chair Rostin Benham became the boss of the independent government agency in January 2022. The CTFC is tasked with regulating derivative markets, including futures, swaps, and certain kinds of options.