VEGAS MYTHS RE-BUSTED: Bad Players Kill the Blackjack Game
Posted on: August 4, 2023, 08:04h.
Last updated on: October 28, 2023, 07:54h.
EDITOR’S NOTE: “Vegas Myths Busted” publishes new entries every Monday, with a bonus Flashback Friday edition. Today’s entry in our ongoing series originally ran on Sept. 30, 2022.
In the game of blackjack, it’s a common myth that the player on third base, the last player to act before the dealer, holds more cards than they actually do. According to this myth, if this player makes a bad move, it will always negatively impact the other player’s outcomes, “killing” the game.
“This is a very common issue with blackjack players,” Anthony F. Lucas, a professor of casino management at UNLV and former gaming industry operations analyst, told Casino.org.
According to Lucas, even the ignoramus who’s betting out of turn, splitting pairs of 10s, and asking the dealer for advice won’t affect your performance unless you let him distract you.
“Over the long term, the benefits and consequences of bad plays to other players cancel each other out,” Lucas said. “Sometimes, they will cost the whole table. But other times, they will save the table. There is no long-term effect to misplayed hands on another player’s expected outcome.”
Turning the Tables
So, while the common reaction is to leave a blackjack table if an inexperienced player has just helped the dealer beat everyone else — and perhaps to utter some colorful words to that player on the way out — leaving won’t increase anyone’s odds of winning next time.
If one were to track the help/hurt outcomes of such decisions, which I have, you would see that the hands are all independent,” Lucas said, explaining that basic blackjack strategy only considers the value of the player’s original two-card hand and the dealer’s up card.
“That alone should signal the independence of the hands,” Lucas said.
You Lose Some, You Lose Some
The issue is psychological, Lucas explained, part of a flawed human thought process called confirmation bias. Unfortunately, our brains like to interpret new evidence only as a confirmation of our existing beliefs and theories.
Subscribers to this blackjack myth see only the consequences associated with the unfavorable outcome,” Lucas said. “They will notice whenever bad plays cost them, but they will process any benefits they receive from bad plays as dumb luck, with some sort of warning label attached — that is, ‘We dodged a bullet on this hand, but please don’t do that again.’”
Nevertheless, because of the persistence of this myth, regular players usually advise rookies to steer clear of third base until they master basic strategy.
Look for “Vegas Myths Busted” every Monday on Casino.org. Click here to read previously busted Vegas myths. Got a suggestion for a Vegas myth that needs busting? Email corey@casino.org.
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Last Comments ( 3 )
This myth persists because people who are strictly logical don't playing blackjack anyway. (Except counters) Example: I played next to a guy who was sure that the game was fixed. He kept playing and discussing how the shufflers fixed the game and kept on playing. Blackjack also is depressing because: if you're breaking even in blackjack, you're losing more than half the hands! Hopefully, you're making it up with blackjacks and doubles; if you're breaking even, that is how. So the game is basically depressing due to more lost hands than wins, most times. Spanish 21 is more fun imo, with more doubling action. And, apologies to Charles RC, but that player on anchor who varies play according to the count, is a counter, who knows better. If anything, a counter varies play in the correct way, and helps the table by standing on high counts. But I agree that if the anchor hits and trashes the dealer's bust card, it sticks out like a sore thumb, but standing when hitting was proper gets little attention.
That's not quite the whole story. Whether the player at third base is more likely to "takes the dealer's bust card" or "saves the table" depends on the count. If the player plays the same at all counts, which is what the busters assume, it all does even out. but a player who has a habit of hitting on stiff hands when the count is high is likely to take the dealers bust card, while a player who takes hits when the count is lower will push the count back to normal, and is likely to get cards that are not tens, and often ends up leaving the ten for the dealer. If the bad player doesn't get a ten, but the dealer doesn't get one either, no one cares. But everyone notices when the player at third base busts, and then the dealer doesn't. So the effect does seem greater than it really is, but does exist.
Under the picture it says that Vince Vaughn gives lousy advice to double on all elevens. This is actually the correct advice because if you look closely at the blackjack layout the dealer hits soft 17 on this game.