Super Bowl LVII: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts Passing Prop Bets

Posted on: February 7, 2023, 08:16h. 

Last updated on: February 7, 2023, 12:44h.

Pauly McGuire Read More
Expertise: Sports Betting, Sports.

Super Bowl LVII features two elite quarterbacks, with Patrick Mahomes from the Kansas City Chiefs battling Jalen Hurts from the Philadelphia Eagles. Bettors have opportunities to make quarterback prop bets on Mahomes and Hurts, including on passing yards, touchdowns, combined yardage, and total completions.

Super Bowl LVII Passing Prop Bets Mahomes Hurts Yards Touchdowns Completions
Patrick Mahomes, the quarterback from the Kansas City Chiefs, attempts a pass against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC championship at Arrowhead Stadium. (Image: Getty)

Super Bowl LVII opened as a pick’em, but the line quickly moved in the Eagles’ direction. The Eagles are currently -1.5 favorites. The Chiefs have several wide receivers recovering from injuries, and Mahomes has a lingering high ankle sprain.

The points total settled on 50.5 over/under, and oddsmakers expect a high-scoring affair. That Super Bowl prediction bodes well if you’re targeting Mahomes and Hurts for passing prop bets.

Quarterback Passing Yards

  • Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs): 290.5 o/u
  • Jalen Hurts (Eagles): 241.5 o/u

DraftKings posted numerous Super Bowl prop bets, and Mahomes is the overall favorite in most categories because he has a stronger arm.

Mahomes has a passing yards total of 290.5 o/u. You must lay -130 odds if you want to bet the over, but it’s even money (+100 odds) if you like the under 290.5 yards. Mahomes appeared in the Super Bowl twice before, averaging 278 passing yards.

Hurts has a passing yards total of 241.5 o/u. It’s close to even money at +105 yards if you want to bet the over, but it’s -135 odds if you like Hurts to throw for under 241.5 yards.

Mahomes led the NFL with 5,250 passing yards in the regular season. He was ranked #1 and averaged 308.8 passing yards per game.

Hurts played in 15 games in the regular season, and missed two games with a shoulder injury. He passed for 3,701 yards and ranked 10th overall. He was ranked #11 in the NFL, averaging 246.7 yards per game.

Mahomes averaged 260.5 passing yards per game in two playoff victories. Hurts averaged only 137.5 passing yards per game because the Eagles blew out two opponents by a combined score of 69-14.

Quarterback Passing Touchdowns

  • Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs): 1.5 o/u
  • Jalen Hurts (Eagles): 1.5 o/u

Bettors have to lay a lot of wood at -215 odds on this prop bet if you think Mahomes throws two or more touchdowns. If you want to wager on the under 1.5 touchdowns, you’re getting value at +175 odds.

Mahomes averaged 2.4 touchdowns per game this season, and 2.0 touchdowns per game this postseason.

The Eagles generated 69 points in two postseason games, but Hurts threw only two passing touchdowns because they relied heavily on their rushing attack.

Hurts averaged 1.46 touchdowns per game this season and 1.0 touchdowns per game in the playoffs.

If you want to bet Hurts to throw two or more touchdowns, you have to lay -110 odds. If you think Hurts will throw one or fewer touchdowns, you have to lay -120 odds.

Combined Passing and Rushing Yards

  • Jalen Hurts (Eagles): 295.5 o/u
  • Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs): 314.5 o/u

The combined yardage prop bet is a fun bet because both quarterbacks have an edge over the other when relying on their arm or legs. The dual-threat Hurts is one of the most dangerous running quarterbacks in the NFL, and Mahomes has a cannon for a right arm.

DraftKings posted a prop bet for rushing yards, and Hurts is one of the betting favorites with a total of 49.5 o/u. Mahomes has the lowest rushing total on the board at 19.5 o/u because he’s nursing an ankle injury and he’s not considered a mobile quarterback.

In two playoff games, Mahomes tallied 521 passing yards, and only 16 rushing yards for 537 combined yards. Mahomes averaged 268.5 combined yards per game in the postseason.

In two playoff victories, Hurts rushed for only 73 yards and passed for 275 yards. Hurts averaged 174 combined yards per game in the postseason. The Eagles didn’t need Hurts to make a big splash because their defense excelled, and their running game dominated the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers.

In 15 regular-season games, Hurts averaged 297.4 combined yards per game. In 17 regular-season games, Mahomes averaged 329.9 combined yards per game.

Quarterback Completions

  • Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs): 25.5 o/u
  • Jalen Hurts (Eagles): 20.5 o/u

Mahomes is -115 odds on either side of the prop bet for Super Bowl completions. If you want to bet on Hurts to complete 21 or more passes, you must lay -130 odds. The under is even money.

Mahomes completed 67.1% of his passes in the regular season, which is a smidge better than his career completion percentage of 66.3%.

In 17 regular-season games, Mahomes averaged 25.5 completions per game. In the playoffs, Mahomes tossed 51 completions and averaged 25.5. It’s uncanny when his regular season and postseason numbers line up perfectly. It’s also no surprise that this Super Bowl prop bet falls exactly on 25.5 o/u.

Hurts completed 66.5% of his passes this season. In three seasons in the NFL, his completion rate is 62.3%, but he struggled in his rookie season at 52%.

Hurts averaged 15.3 completions per game in the regular season. In two playoff games, Hurts averaged 15.5 completions. Oddsmakers anticipate a shootout, which suggests Hurts will attempt more passes than usual.