California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s 2024 Odds Shorten Following Biden Debate Debacle

Posted on: June 28, 2024, 09:40h. 

Last updated on: June 28, 2024, 11:31h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More
Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) was perhaps the big winner of Thursday night’s debate between President Joe Biden (D) and former President Donald Trump (R).

Biden Trump Gavin Newsom 2024 odds
President Joe Biden struggles to find his thoughts during the presidential debate with former President Donald Trump on Thursday, May 27, 2024. Some Democrats are urging the president to step aside following the debate debacle. (Image: Getty)

Biden’s debate performance in which he repeatedly struggled to conjugate sentences and articulate his thoughts, with his list of stunning blunders highlighted by claiming he “finally beat Medicare” while attempting to answer a question about the national debt, has Democrats understandably worried about whether the 81-year-old is mentally capable of serving another four-year term.

Some Democrats like Vice President Kamala Harris tried to downplay the commander-in-chief’s performance.

It was a slow start,” Harris told CNN. “I’m not going to debate that. I’m talking about the choice in November. I’m talking about one of the most important elections in our collective lifetime.”

Americans on both sides of the political aisle likely agree with Harris that November 5 is critically important to the country’s future. That’s why some Democrats are concerned that Biden doesn’t have what it takes to beat Trump a second time.

“Every Democrat I know is texting that this is bad. Just say it publicly and begin the hard work of creating space in the convention for a selection process. I’ll vote for a corpse over Trump, but this is a suicide mission,” said Ravi Gupta, a former campaign manager for President Barack Obama. 

Exit Calls

CNN political commentator and former Biden strategist Van Jones said his former boss’s performance “was painful” and that “he didn’t do well at all.”

I just want to speak from my heart: I love that guy,” Jones continued. “That’s a good man. He loves his country. He’s doing the best that he can. But he had a test to meet tonight to restore confidence in the country and he failed to do that.”

Jones added that there are a lot of people who want “to take a different course.” A different course would require Biden to agree to step aside and willingly contribute his Democratic delegates that he won by the state-by-state primary process to a designated candidate.

On political betting exchanges, Trump’s stock soared during and following the debate. Trump’s implied odds on the peer-to-peer exchanges soared by 6% to a 58% chance of winning in November. Biden’s stock nosedived almost 15% to an implied chance of 33%.

Oddsmakers in the UK, where political betting is allowed, quickly adjusted their lines.

Trump, who was already the 2024 betting front-runner, was further shortened by William Hill to -175 (implied odds of 64%). A $100 winning bet on that line nets $57.14.

Biden’s line was further lengthened to +450 (implied odds of 18%).

Newsom Backup 

With some Democrats scrambling for a Biden replacement, bettors believe Newsom is next in line to lead the party. Newsom’s stock rose from trading at just 8 cents to 23 cents in winning the Democratic Party 2024 ticket.

Newsom, however, urged the party to keep calm and carry on with Biden.

“I think it’s unhelpful and unnecessary,” Newsom said of the rush to swap out Biden. “We’ve got to keep our heads high. We’ve got to have the back of this president. You don’t turn back because of one performance. What kind of party does that?”