Political Bettors Predict Outcome of First Debate Between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

Posted on: September 9, 2024, 01:53h. 

Last updated on: September 9, 2024, 02:05h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More
Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.

The second presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle will mark the first time former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris square off.

political bettors debate Trump Harris odds
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will square off on Tuesday, September 10 for their first head-to-head debate. Political bettors are wagering money on how they think the night will go. (Image: Casino.org)

Tuesday night’s showdown comes 75 days after Trump exposed President Joe Biden during their June 27 debate that resulted in many Democratic leaders questioning the president’s mental fitness and ability to lead for another four years. Biden eventually succumbed to the political pressure mounted by his former boss, President Barack Obama, and US Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-California), in deciding not to seek a second four-year term in the White House.

The second presidential debate of the 2024 season brings in a new Democratic candidate in Harris, who was picked to succeed Biden as the party’s leader. Harris is reportedly working hard on her debate preparation, as the VP has largely refrained from speaking off script in the leadup to her one-on-one with the billionaire who made much of his fortune in the gambling industry.

Debate Preview 

Tuesday’s primetime presidential debate will air at 9 pm EST from the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. David Muir and Linsey Davis of ABC News will moderate the 90-minute event.

Pennsylvania is likely to be a key swing state in determining the Electoral College outcome. According to the most recent polling average in Pennsylvania, Harris has a 0.6-point lead there over Trump.

Political wagering exchange Polymarket has an abundance of contests on the Tuesday debate. A little more than 24 hours before the conversation is scheduled to begin, bettors on the decentralized exchange think Trump will command more speaking time, but polls will conclude that Harris won the evening.

Bettors think there’s about a 60% chance that Harris will call Trump a “convicted felon” and a more than nine in 10 chance that she’ll talk about abortion. Whether she’ll say, “I’m speaking,” something she repeatedly said to VP Mike Pence during their 2020 debate, has odds of about one in five.

As for Trump, bettors think he’ll call Harris the “border czar” but are split on him calling the vice president “Comrade Kamala,” a jab linking her to communist policies. Bettors think there’s a 66% chance Trump will say “fake news” and a nearly nine in 10 chance he’ll say “China” at least three times. The odds of Trump referencing Israel are at -900 (1/9), or a 90% chance.

Bettors don’t think Trump and Harris will shake hands to start or end the debate. “Yes” shares in that market are trading at just 27 cents. Shares of winning outcomes are redeemed at $1 each, minus platform fees.

2024 Odds

Polymarket odds as of September 9 for the 2024 election have Trump the betting front-runner, with his shares trading at implied odds of 52% to Harris at 46%. More than $844.9 million is riding on the November 5 outcome.

UK oddsmakers, where election betting is allowed, also have Trump favored at 4/5 (-125). The line implies a likelihood of 55.56%, with a winning $100 bet netting $80.

Harris is the underdog at 11/10 (+110). A winning $100 bet on that line would net $110.