AVELLO: “Weird” Start to NFL Season has Bettors Taking a Beating So Far (Exclusive)

Posted on: September 27, 2024, 01:46h. 

Last updated on: September 27, 2024, 01:46h.

Mark Keast Read More

Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.

Sports Betting Hall of Famer Johnny Avello says rarely has he seen what’s been going on so far in the NFL, going into Week 4 – six-, seven- point favorites going down at a “hectic clip.”

“I have seen times early in the season that are really unpredictable, but this year seems to be a little wilder than some of those, because even though the underdogs have done well early in the season, to have this many just win out right? It is very strange,” he says.

Sportsbooks cleaning up so far

It’s a great time to be operating a sportsbook. Not a good three weeks for bettors, to say the least. With scoring being down, if you’ve been taking the Overs, you’ve been getting crushed there as well. That’s why a lot of the lines going into this weekend are close, Avello says.

The high margin start for sports books means they will likely be re-investing on bonusing and promos to keep people betting.
Avello, DraftKings’ Director of Race & Sportsbook Operations, is up early and into his Las Vegas office to talk about all this, what he’s been seeing on the NFL front, going into last night’s Dallas Cowboys-New York Giants game.

And again, on trend, the Cowboys, being the moneyline favorite going into that game (the spread was -6 at BetMGM, -5.5 at DraftKings), beat the Giants 20-15 – a far tighter game than it should have been, looking at the lineups on paper.

“It hasn’t been good for bettors betting teasers, money line parlays and even contests – Survivor contests, the majority of the group there has taken a real hit the first three weeks,” Avello says. “It’s a strange trend going on early. I can’t put a finger on it. I think that offenses for teams are not as tuned up as they would normally be. They only played three preseason games. Some of the players aren’t playing in a lot of those games. If they are they’re just playing a small amount of time.

Inexperienced NFL QBs having a big impact

“I just don’t think the offenses are clicking. You see that scoring is down now. There’s also a lot of new quarterbacks in the league who are starting. It used to be where these younger quarterbacks would have to sit behind a veteran for a couple of years, learn the trade and then get put in. But these guys are getting thrown right into the games. A few are performing. Some are struggling out there.”

NFL games are faster, Avello adds. The game clock is constantly running – lots of running by the quarterbacks, lots of short passing, not as much downfield passing as in the past.

“It’s just a weird start to the season,” Avello says. “I believe things will level out. The favourites will start to win more. You’ll start to see scoring go up.”

Challenging times for oddsmakers

With the upsets, oddsmakers are making their adjustments, he adds. Maybe teams aren’t as good as oddsmakers thought to start the season.

This weekend, there is only one dominating favorite – the 49ers, -10.5 favorites at DraftKings, in their Sunday game at home against the Patriots.

Injuries with quarterbacks that have placed their weekend status in doubt – the Vikings’ Sam Darnold, the 49ers’ Brock Purdy, the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, to name three – has made line-setting challenging, for sure. Plus, the anomalies with favourites taking a beating so far.

“The difference between a quarterback starting and not starting could be anywhere from three to seven, eight points, so that really can swing the spread and change everything,” he says.

Still, some perspective on the betting front is needed.

Johnny Avello: Things will even out

“You cannot judge how [the sportsbook] is going to do in the NFL by the first three weeks of the season,” he says. “That’s not going to continue. There’s going to be some weeks where we get dinged up pretty good. All the favorites will win for a few weeks, for sure, and maybe even more than a few, so no one knows what lies ahead.

“So as bookmakers, just stay steady and continue to do all the work you do. And when things go well, they go well, when they go poor, then everything falls off the table. So, you just stay consistent in what you do.

“With the 49ers this week, I would expect them to win that game, but the way the season has been going so far, who knows? There is a lot of teams that need wins. The Bengals are in trouble. Ravens-Bills is going to be a great game, a heavily bet game. The Commanders are going to have a rough time in Arizona. There are a lot of games out there where you could see some underdogs win, certainly some smaller priced underdogs.”