VP Debate Showcases Key Policy Differences but Also Cordiality, 2024 Odds Unmoved

Posted on: October 2, 2024, 10:50h. 

Last updated on: October 2, 2024, 11:04h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More
Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.

The first and only vice presidential debate of the 2024 election season was a much more cordial affair than what the candidates’ respective running mates stomached last month. The more than 90-minute discussion was amiable throughout, heavy on policy, and gave both US Sen JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz a primetime opportunity to introduce themselves to the American people.

VP debate Tim Walz JD Vance
2024 vice presidential candidates JD Vance (left) and Tim Walz debate in New York City on Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024. Vance and Walz provided viewers with a more cordial policy discussion than what their running mates showcased last month. (Image: CBS)

In what many called a refreshing return to civility among two candidates seeking a role in the White House, Vance and Walz, unlike their top-of-the-ticket partners, engaged in a meaningful discussion that focused on the economy, immigration, abortion, climate change, foreign policy, the housing shortage, and gun safety.

Vance and Walz seemed to find common ground on several issues. However, a key moment for the governor was asking Vance if he would have certified the outcome of the 2020 election, as did then-Vice President Mike Pence.  

Tim, I’m focused on the future,” Vance replied. “That is a damning non-answer,” Walz responded.

The governor had his bad moments, too. Walz said he “misspoke” when he previously claimed he was in Hong Kong and China during the 1989 protests in Tiananmen Square when it has been proven false.

“I’ve not been perfect, and I’m a knucklehead at times,” Walz said.

Odds Unmoved 

Walz and Vance both had their good and bad moments, though many political pundits thought the Republican vice presidential candidate won the debate aside from the exchange about certifying the 2020 outcome. Donald Trump wouldn’t be eligible to run again in 2028, meaning Vance won’t be certifying the 2028 outcome for Trump anyway.

Most voters are more focused on current issues, not 2020, such as inflation, high housing costs, and abortion. If Vance was indeed the victor on Tuesday night, political bettors didn’t believe the performance did much to change the November 5 result.

The presidential election winner market on Polymarket, the decentralized peer-to-peer betting exchange that allows customers to predict outcomes of political events with real money bets, held steady with Kamala Harris’ implied odds at 50% to Trump’s at 49%. More than $1.1 billion has been bet on the contest, though Polymarket doesn’t accept customers from the US.

On PredictIt, a political wagering site that does allow US-based bettors, Harris’ stock went unchanged at implied odds of 55%. Trump gained a percent to 49%.

Smarkets has the race in a dead heat, with each candidate’s odds at an implied outcome of 49.5%. Less than $10 million has been wagered on the peer-to-peer platform.

Overseas Odds 

In Europe and the United Kingdom where bookmakers take action on election outcomes around the world, Trump has closed the gap on Harris.

William Hill, a leading sportsbook, has Harris and Trump at 10/11 (-110). The odds imply a winning likelihood of 52.38%. Last week, Trump was slightly longer at even money (1/1, +100).

Only 33 days remain before the November 5 election. Early voting is underway in many states.