Anthropic Prediction Markets: IPO Odds, Mythos Release, & More

There is rarely a day when Anthropic is out of the headlines. The artificial intelligence giant behind Claude was forced to disable two of its most powerful models just 72 hours after launch earlier this month. 

The move came after a government export-control order, leaving Mythos 5 and Fable 5 out of action.

Following successful coordination with regulators to update the models’ safety frameworks, the restriction was officially lifted, and Anthropic reinstated Fable 5 on July 1.

Despite the resolution, prediction market traders on Kalshi and Polymarket maintain a high level of volume and interest in Anthropic-related contracts.

Our exclusive Kalshi promo code is CORGBONUS and will get you $20 after you sign-up and deposit $10. If you’re looking for more options to trade on Anthropic, check out our list of the best prediction market apps.

The Story Behind Fable 5 and Mythos 5

Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 were launched by Anthropic on June 9 this year. This was like Christmas Day for AI users focusing on software engineering, scientific research, and other complex tasks. However, the hype didn’t last long, and both models were suspended just three days later following a government directive amid security risks. 

The good news for users is that the Mythos 5 is now available for public use in the US once again.

However, this is the latest twist in a long-standing saga between Anthropic and senior White House officials. There are multiple ongoing Anthropic prediction markets available, so let’s take a closer look at the current probabilities and recent price movements.

Current Anthropic Prediction Markets

Many are backing Anthropic to join the trillion-dollar club by the end of 2026. It’s therefore no surprise that there are several ongoing prediction markets surrounding the AI safety and research organization. Let’s take a closer look.

Did you know?

Did you know?

Our exclusive Kalshi promo code, CORGBONUS, will earn you a $20 trading bonus when you sign up to Kalshi and make a $10 deposit.

Will Anthropic Disable Fable 5 Access for US Customers?

Given the recent turmoil surrounding Fable 5, it would come as no surprise should this model be banned once again. This came after Kalshi traders pushed the implied probability of restoration to 58% before July 1 and to 74% by July 10. Fable 5 was made available again on July 1.  

Since then, the probability that Anthropic will disable Fable 5 by July 10 has decreased from 6% to 1%. This compares to 9% to 5% and 13.1% to 12% for July 31 and August 31 deadlines, respectively. 

President Trump was reported to have said that Anthropic was no longer regarded as a threat to national security. However, the unpredictable nature of the former The Apprentice host means it would be no surprise should he suddenly change his mind.

• Before July 10, 2026: 1% chance (Yes 3¢, No 1)
• Before July 31, 2026: 5% chance (Yes 5¢, No 96¢)
• Before August 31, 2026: 12% chance (Yes 13¢, No 88¢)

When Will Anthropic Release Mythos to the Public?

While Fable 5 was released to the public, Mythos 5 remains exclusive to government partners and vetted defenders. Why, we hear you ask? It’s largely because the model features advanced cybersecurity capabilities that could pose a threat to automated hacking and safeguard bypassing.  When will a public model named “Mythos” be released? These were the contract prices at the time of writing:

• Before November 1, 2026: 13% chance (Yes 13¢, No 88¢)
• Before December 1, 2026: 17% chance (Yes 17¢, No 84¢)
• Before January 1, 2027: 19% chance (Yes 20¢, No 81¢)

On July 1, Anthropic released a statement stating: “We’ll begin restoring access tomorrow.” This came after the AI giants agreed to detect and address security risks and to work alongside the US Government to develop protocols. However, it remains to be seen how long the process will take. 

When Will Anthropic Announce an IPO?

There is also growing speculation that Anthropic is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO). A draft registration statement was submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 1. 

This could result in a stock market debut on the Nasdaq or NYSE by the fourth quarter. There is a clear strategy to complete the process ahead of OpenAI and to hold the power among AI companies on Wall Street. 

As you can see from the percentages below, the market isn’t strongly leaning toward any one outcome. 

• Before October 1, 2026: 48% chance (Yes 47¢, No 55¢)
• Before November 1, 2026: 57% chance (Yes 59¢, No 43¢)
• Before December 1, 2026: 62% chance (Yes 35¢, No 41¢)

Which Banks Will Take Anthropic Public?

As Anthropic’s journey to Wall Street intensifies, reports at the beginning of June suggested that Anthropic had selected Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to facilitate its public offering. However, with no official announcement, this market remains unresolved. 

This Kalshi market is based on which bank serves as the lead underwriter, book-running manager, and global coordinator for Anthropic’s US initial public offering before January 1, 2028. 

• Stifel Financial: 52% chance (Yes 56¢, No 45¢)
• Mizuho: 51% chance (Yes 56¢, No 45¢)
• William Blair: 50% chance (Yes 41¢, No 60¢)
• Raymond Jones: 49% chance (Yes 38¢, No 63¢)
• Rothschild & Co: 49% chance (Yes 31¢, No 70¢)

Whichever bank wins the race, it will likely be one of the largest public offerings in history, alongside SpaceX and OpenAI’s confidential listing

Want to make any of these trades? Use our exclusive CORGBONUS promo code on Kalshi to earn a $20 trading bonus when you register and deposit $10.