Apple Targets Prediction Markets in New Employee Insider Trading Ban

Apple is taking a hardline stance against employees and contractors who use sensitive company intelligence to trade on prediction markets. In a word: Don’t.

In a new Form 10-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the iPhone maker features an extensive section on insider trading prohibitions, including a section devoted to prediction markets in which the company tells staff to not trade on yes/no exchanges “based on confidential information.”

Apple explicitly instructs employees and contractors not to trade on yes/no exchanges using nonpublic information.

The company doesn’t say if staff can still transact in other event contracts, such as sports derivatives, cryptocurrency and pop culture.

Setting a Corporate Precedent

At a time when more companies are evaluating prediction market policies—and as politicians and regulators scale up scrutiny of insider trading on these platforms—Apple’s explicit prohibition could set an industry benchmark.

Tech giants are uniquely vulnerable to prediction market abuse because platforms regularly run contracts tied directly to product updates, keynote announcements, and hardware release dates.

The risk is not theoretical. Earlier this year, a former Google software engineer was hit with federal insider trading charges after allegedly using nonpublic data to net $1.2 million on Polymarket. In that regulatory climate, Apple is leaving no ambiguity.

“You must also not tip Apple Confidential Information to others who may participate in such markets. Apple Confidential Information includes, but is not limited to, material nonpublic information. This prohibition applies whether or not the activity constitutes insider trading or securities trading under applicable laws,” the company added in the 10-K.

Closing the KPI Loophole

The timing is likely coincidental, but Apple telling staff and contractors to keep nonpublic information to themselves arrives about three weeks after the SEC approved key performance indicator (KPI) event contracts developed by Cboe Global Markets for trading on Robinhood.

Those contracts allow traders to wager on specific line-item metrics—such as net iPhone sales or quarterly revenue—across 23 major public companies, including Apple.

While these derivatives create new liquidity for retail traders, they also open new avenues for nefarious activity. By explicitly naming prediction and event contracts in its 10-K, Apple is heading off potential compliance crises before its upcoming product cycles begin.