Atlanta Braves Offer the Best Value in MLB World Series Futures Market

Posted on: September 10, 2022, 06:29h. 

Last updated on: September 12, 2022, 01:50h.

Steve Bittenbender Read More
Expertise: Legislation, Sports Betting, Horse Racing.

There’s less than a month left in MLB’s regular season, and while we know who will make the playoffs for the most part, there’s still some exciting action taking place on the field to determine where teams will be seeded.

Atlanta Braves
Dansby Swanson and the Atlanta Braves are among the hottest teams in baseball right now. They also represent the best value pick in the World Series futures market. (Image: Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports)

Some teams hope they’ll be able to ride a hot September into the October playoffs and claim the World Series crown. Down in Atlanta, the defending World Series champion Braves (87-51) entered Saturday winners in eight of the last 10. That’s a good enough streak that they’ve overtaken the New York Mets (87-52) by a half-game in the National League East.

Those two teams will almost assuredly advance to postseason play. But a three-game series later this month in Atlanta between the two contenders will likely decide who gets the division title and an important bye into the divisional round of the playoffs.

While the Mets have the easier schedule down the stretch, the Braves are playing better baseball. From a betting perspective, the Braves also appear to be the best value for bettors who want to make a futures wager on the World Series. That’s based on the World Series projections currently available at baseball analytics site FanGraphs and the sportsbook odds posted on comparison website Oddschecker.

Oddsmakers Undervalue Braves Chances

FanGraphs gives 15 teams some type of chance at winning the World Series, from the favorite Los Angeles Dodgers (17.7% projected odds) down to the Minnesota Twins (0.3%).

Casino.org then compared the FanGraphs projections with the best odds available at a regulated sportsbook. The table showing all the odds, as well as best and worst values, is below.

The best value, by far, is the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves have a 15.5% chance of winning the World Series, according to FanGraphs. Meanwhile, you can still get them at BetMGM at +900 to defend their title. Those odds equal an implied probability of 10%, or 5.5 percentage points less than FanGraphs’ projections.

The second-best value pick is the San Diego Padres (77-62), holding the second wild card in the National League. They’re not as likely to win the World Series, as FanGraphs gives them just a 5.6% chance. But their +3600 odds at FanDuel equate to an implied probability of a 2.7% chance.

World Series odds
Odds courtesy of Oddschecker. All projections and odds are current as of Saturday, Sept. 10 and are subject to change. (Image: Casino.org)

Betting Favorites Don’t Have Value

The Dodgers (94-43), who have the best record in MLB, have a 17.7% projection per FanGraphs. But the best odds available for them are just +360 at DraftKings. Those odds translate to an implied probability of 21.7%, or 4 percentage points higher than FanGraphs’ estimation.

If you’re looking for value in the American League, don’t look to the favorites. The Houston Astros (89-49) are considered the most likely AL team to win it all at 13.4%. But the best odds for them are +410 at FanDuel – which equates to a 19.6% probability.

Meanwhile, after a torrid start to the season, the New York Yankees (84-56) have cooled down. They’ll still make the playoffs, but FanGraphs gives them just a 7.8% chance of winning their 28th World Series. But the best odds available for them are +600 at Unibet and Bet Rivers. That represents an implied probability of 14.3%.