Bad Beat Breakdown: Crazy Final Minute of Kentucky-Florida Game Kills the Under (VIDEO)

Posted on: September 16, 2019, 10:30h. 

Last updated on: September 16, 2019, 01:18h.

Steve Bittenbender Read More
Expertise: Legislation, Sports Betting, Horse Racing.

Welcome to Bad Beat Breakdown, where, when bad beats happen, we will take you inside to what caused what seemed like a near-lock to go horrifying wrong at the last second.

Florida’s Josh Hammond avoided getting tripped up late on his last-minute 76-yard TD run in Saturday’s 29-21 win at Kentucky. Those who bet the under in the game weren’t so lucky. (Image: Tim Casey/FloridaGators.com)

For the first installment of Bad Beat Breakdown, we’ll head to Lexington, Ky., where on Saturday night the University of Kentucky hosted the No. 9-ranked University of Florida in a Southeastern Conference college football clash.

Through three quarters, the host Wildcats, who started their second-string quarterback after losing starter Terry Wilson to a season-ending injury the week before, led the Gators 21-10. That was a good score for those who bet the under on total points, which was 46.

In addition, the Gators saw starting quarterback Felipe Franks, a third-year starter at that, leave the game in the third quarter with what head coach Dan Mullen described as a season-ending leg injury of his own. That meant any comeback would be on the shoulders of backup Kyle Trask.

Trask would lead the Gators on two fourth quarter touchdown drives. Both went for at least 62 yards and needed at least six plays. But none took more than 2:14 off the clock. His 4-yard scoring run with 4:11 left gave Florida a 22-21 lead after a missed two-point conversion.

That touchdown drive was aided by a controversial targeting penalty called on Kentucky’s T.J. Carter for hitting Trask helmet-to-helmet on a sack that would have set up a third-and-15 from the Florida 44. Replays showed that Trask leaned into the hit. However, officials reviewed the play and upheld the call on the field.

Kentucky Still Had a Chance

The Gators go-ahead score still gave Kentucky plenty of time to get downfield and reclaim the lead. Plus, the Wildcats had all three timeouts.

UK ended up marching 58 yards to get to the Gators 17 with less than a minute remaining. Facing a fourth-and-1, Stoops sent out kicker Chance Poore for a 35-yard field goal attempt that would give Kentucky the lead and over/under bettors a near-guaranteed push.

Speaking of push, that’s exactly what it looked like Poore did on his attempt.

How rare was a miss like that? According to Stadium’s Andy Wittry, college kickers in Power 5 conferences converted on 88 percent of field goals from that distance last year.

However, 35 yards seems to be the dividing line for college kickers, as success rates tail off dramatically from there. Less than a third of college kickers from Power 5 conferences had an average make of 35 yards, and only 10 Power 5 kickers nailed a game-winner in the final minute of regulation in 2018.

UK coach Mark Stoops declined to pin the blame solely on his redshirt freshman kicker. There were a few other plays, such as a failed fourth down conversion earlier in the game, that allowed Florida to hang around.

You’re going to miss some,” he said. “You don’t want it to be for a game. So, you know, he’ll bounce back. There’s a lot of games, you know, a lot of plays out there, that we can all do better.”

And, really, all was not lost for UK at that point. There was still :54 remaining, and the Wildcats still had all three timeouts.

Hammond Drops the Hammer

Kentucky made two stops on the Gators first two plays, setting up a third-and-6 at the Florida 24 with :44 left. The Wildcats used two timeouts to stop the clock, and still had one they could use to ensure they’d get the ball back with some time to get back into field goal range or try for a Hail Mary.

Josh Hammond, though, would all but seal the game for the Gators and crush the under on the very next play.

Watching Hammond go 76 yards for the score, there were scores of bettors urging him to take a knee before he got to the end zone. The over/under line was 46, but some bettors found opportunities to bet it as high as 50. Hammond’s touchdown made the final score 29-21, meaning Kentucky fans weren’t the only ones to suffer an agonizing loss.

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The next time you suffer a bad beat, share your pain with the rest of us. Email Steve Bittenbender or tweet him @CasinoOrgSteveB with the reason why you won’t bet again, at least until the next week.