Bookies Lose Big on Game of Thrones After DirecTV Leaks Premier Four Hours Early

Posted on: April 16, 2019, 08:32h. 

Last updated on: April 16, 2019, 08:32h.

Philip Conneller @casinoorgphilc Read More
Expertise: Gaming Business, Regulation, Tribal Gaming.

Some gamblers cleaned up on the Game of Thrones betting markets on Sunday because, unknown to bookmakers, DirecTV inadvertently dropped the agonizingly awaited first episode of the eighth and final season of the fantasy juggernaut onto its streaming service four hours early.

Game of Thrones
Not long for that world? Bronn, played by Jerome Flynn, has only a 6.5 percent chance of surviving Game of Thrones season 8, according to a new machine-learning model that predicts deaths in the series. (Image: HBO)

That meant that for certain switched-on subscribers, the prop bets some bookies were offering, such as “Who will speak first in Game of Thrones Season 8?” suddenly became a lot less speculative.

One Antigua-based bookmaker told TMZ that it lost “low five figures” on that particular bet alone (answer: Tyrin Lannister), although we’re surprised the bookie agreed to pay up at all.

Additional Leak?

Still, for a show that has been plagued by leaks, particularly during the last series, at least this incident can be attributed to nothing more sinister than good, old-fashioned human error, rather than cybercrime.

Or can it?

TMZ’s bookie says Tyrion’s odds were cut from 4/1 to evens in the 48 hours leading up to the premiere, not just the first four, suggesting suspicious betting patterns were not confined to the DirecTV blunder and that some other factor may have been at play.

We assume that someone with inside knowledge was either betting heavily or telling all of their friends to do so,” the bookmaker said. “This type of stuff does occur in our industry, and we obviously can’t verify if there was a leak, but the betting action pointed to one.”

Game of Thrones Death-Pool Predictor

Meanwhile, the season-eight premier was a bit of a damp squib for fans of the notorious Game of Thrones “death pools.” These are the popular betting pools on which character will be next to meet his or her maker – whether that be the Old Gods, the Seven, the Lord of Light, the Drowned God, or even the Many-faced God.

In fact, for a show that has amassed 174,373 deaths in the first seven seasons, according to one statistic, the bodycount of just six on Sunday was perhaps the lowest ever, although the last one was a shocker.

But don’t worry, there are still five episodes to go – plenty of time for the death toll to mount – and now German scientists have invented algorithm they believe can predict which character will go next.

The model uses machine-learning and in-universe data points that cover specific information about characters, including social status, gender, family house, alliances, marital status, and location to predict those most at risk.

Ranked as most likely to die this season is Bronn the mercenary, who is 93.5 percent a goner, along with “The Mountain” Gregor Clegane, with an 80.3 percent implied probability of mortality.

Surprisingly, Lady of Winterfell Sansa Stark is also a hot tip for extinction, at 73.3 percent, according to the model.