Trader Talk: Betting Heading Holloway’s Way for Tomorrow’s UFC 308 Featherweight Tilt with Topuria

Posted on: October 25, 2024, 03:47h. 

Last updated on: October 25, 2024, 03:47h.

Mark Keast Read More
Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.

Not surprisingly, talking to traders, the most bet fight (tickets) for tomorrow’s big UFC 308 event at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE is Ilia Topuria (-250 at BetMGM) defending his featherweight title for the first time against Max Holloway (+190).

Max Holloway climbs into the Octagon for a much-anticipated UFC featherweight championship bout against Ilia Topuria tomorrow in Abu Dhabi. Image/USA TODAY Sports

Topuria Betting Favorite

Two-time champion status for Holloway? This one promises to be elite. Topuria (15-0-0), from Spain, became a UFC champion in just his seventh appearance when he knocked out Alexander Volkanovski in February of this year. Holloway (26-7-0) is a former UFC champion looking to grab a title for the first time in more than five years (Holloway lost his featherweight title to Volkanovski in 2019 and lost to him again in 2022).

The Hawaiian-American knocked out Justin Gaethje in dramatic fashion in UFC 300 in April to take the BMF title. Gaethje was the betting favorite going into that lightweight fight.

UFC 308: Earlier Start Time

Holloway’s UFC career has also been marked by bouts with Dustin Poirier (in 2012, a loss), Conor McGregor (2013, a loss), then a stretch of 13 wins straight from 2014 through 2019, including two memorable bouts (TKOs) over Jose Aldo.

Holloway, six years older than Topuria, is seeing 86% of bets and 50% of handle at BetMGM. Also, at BetMGM, Holloway by KO/TKO or DQ (+500) is the most bet prop (tickets), followed by Holloway by Decision/Technical Decision (+400), Topuria to win in 60 seconds or less (+2500), Topuria by KO/TKO or DQ (+150) and Holloway to win in 60 seconds or less (+5500).

Note the unusual start time tomorrow: 2 p.m. EST for the main card.

Holloway by TKO a Popular Prop

Four unbeaten fighters are on the main card – Topuria, Khamzat Chimaev (-250, up against Robert Whittaker, at +200), Lerone Murphy (-300, up against Dan Ige, +240), and Shara Magomedov (-185, up against Armen Petrosyan, at +140).

“A few zeroes could go, shall we say. The price on Max Holloway is massive for me and surprisingly the price is going out on Holloway,” said Mark Collier, a trader with BetVictor. “Holloway opened at 7/4 (+175) so seeing 23/10 (+230) is pretty big. His decision price absolutely is where I’d be tomorrow.”

Topuria is seeing a lot of betting action on other fronts.

All the business we’ve seen is Spanish support for Topuria versus Holloway,” said Oliver Vickers from 888 Sport.

The FanDuel Canada Trading Team said they are seeing “some interesting activity on UFC 308” with the most bet props in this order – Holloway by KO/TKO, Holloway by Points, Topuria by KO/TKO, Chris Barnett (against Kennedy Nzechukwu) by KO/TKO, and Whittaker by Points.