Canadian Election Odds: Trudeau Ponders Stepping Down After Finance Minister Quits

Posted on: December 16, 2024, 04:25h. 

Last updated on: December 16, 2024, 04:36h.

Mark Keast Read More

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Canada’s Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, is reportedly considering his options as party leader after a tumultuous day where his finance minister suddenly resigned after a dispute over a cabinet shuffle.

Wild Day in Canadian Politics

News broke early this morning that Chrystia Freeland was quitting on the day a pivotal government economic statement was due after Trudeau had told her Friday he no longer wanted her as finance minister and offered her another cabinet post. Freeland posted her resignation letter today on X.

“Upon reflection, I have concluded that the only honest and viable path is for me to resign from the Cabinet,” she wrote. “To be effective, a Minister must speak on behalf of the Prime Minister and with his full confidence. In making your decision, you made clear that I no longer credibly enjoy that confidence and possess the authority that comes with it. For the past number of weeks, you and I have found ourselves at odds about the best path forward for Canada.

Our country today faces a grave challenge. The incoming administration in the United States is pursuing a policy of aggressive economic nationalism, including a threat of 25 per cent tariffs.”

Threat of U.S. Tariffs

Freeland denounced Trudeau’s “costly political gimmicks” in her resignation post on X. The past few weeks have seen a back and forth of barbs and jabs between incoming U.S. president Donald Trump and Canada’s national and provincial leaders, led by Trump tweets in late November about imposing a 25% on all Canadian goods (and goods from Mexico) once his new government is sworn in this January if those countries don’t clamp down on drugs, especially fentanyl, as well as migrants crossing the border.

Trudeau made a surprise visit to Trump’s headquarters in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, Nov. 29 to meet with Trump and address the tariff threat. Trump in several social media missives later said Canada might be better off as the 51st U.S. state where Trudeau could serve as governor. Last week saw a Trudeau-led meeting with provincial premiers to discuss the situation, with at least one premier – Ontario’s Doug Ford – threatening retaliatory economic action, including stopping energy exports.

Polls: Conservatives Look to Form Majority Government

Freeland’s announcement led off what’s been an extraordinary day on the Canadian political front, followed by reports of disarray in Liberal Party ranks, and calls for Trudeau’s resignation. Dominic LeBlanc was sworn in as finance minister later in the day. Housing minister Sean Fraser had announced his resignation today as well, with reporting that Trudeau’s cabinet shuffle wasn’t being met positively within party ranks.

Trudeau’s Liberals are way down in the polls – current seat projections see the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre winning a massive majority (as many as 233 seats according to CBC reporting). Support for the Conservatives is around 43%. The Liberals, currently in power with a minority government, propped up by a deal they did with the NDP party to support Liberal Party in Parliamentary votes on policy, are polling at around 21%. Recent polls suggest the Liberals could finish fourth if an election were held today. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh said today that “all options are on the table” when asked about pulling his party’s support for the Liberal government.

Canadian Election Betting Markets

Trudeau himself is immensely unpopular in Canada – with a current approval rating of just 28%.

Today’s economic statement was meant to turn the tide on the polling. House leader Karina Gould had to table the statement in Freeland’s absence, pledging $1.3 billion for a border security package over six years. The document didn’t get into details about how that money will be spent. That’s part of the government’s plan to address the Trump threat.

Various sportsbooks have been offering markets on the upcoming Canadian election, scheduled for Oct. 20, 2025, unless of course the Liberal minority government is brought down by a non-confidence vote. FanDuel has the Conservatives today at -1000, followed by the Liberals at +1900, the NDP at +6000, and “any other party” at +10000. BetVictor has it Conservatives -1000, Liberals at +500, NDP at +3500, Bloc Quebecois at +10000 and the Green Party at +50000. BetMGM has the Conservatives at -2000, the Liberals at +800, the NDP at +2500, the Bloc Quebecois at +5000 and the Green Party at +20000.