DraftKings Stock Top Idea Amid Football Spark, Market Share Gains, Says Loop Capital

Posted on: September 20, 2021, 07:21h. 

Last updated on: September 20, 2021, 03:32h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.

DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) stock lands another endorsement today, as Loop Capital says the gaming name remains a top pick on the back of momentum created by the arrival of football season and increasing market share.

DraftKings stock
Employees walk past the entrance of DraftKings office in Boston. DraftKings stock remains the top pick on football momentum. Loop Capital has a $105 price target on it. (Image: CNBC)

In a note to clients Monday, the research firm reiterates a “buy” rating and a $105 price target on DraftKings. That’s by far the highest price forecast on the stock on Wall Street, and nearly 50 percent above the consensus estimate. It also implies upside of almost 60 percent from the Sept. 17 close.

DraftKings is gaining share and has recently overtaken FanDuel as the top US sportsbook app, according to the latest rankings on Apple’s App Store,” says Loop Capital.

“Recent market share gains are further supported by the latest monthly revenue/handle data reported by various state gaming commissions, and our analysis suggests another ‘beat and raise’ quarter for our top pick,” Loop Capitals continued.

FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM are the top three operators in terms of domestic online casino and sports betting market share.

Pilfering Market Share Significant for DraftKings Stock

The ability of DraftKings and any other competitor in this space to steal market share from FanDuel is crucial.

By some estimates, FanDuel, a unit of Flutter Entertainment (OTC:PDYPY), controlled 45 percent of the US online sports betting market as of the end of the second quarter. Additionally, BetMGM has the top spot in the booming online casino market, another area in which DraftKings is competing. However, the Boston-based company is up to the challenges.

Some analysts see DraftKings gaining nearly a quarter of the iGaming and sports betting markets by 2025. Citing cross-selling opportunities, including its burgeoning media footprint, DraftKings can gain market share from FanDuel, according to some Wall Street analysts.

Regarding Loop Capital’s prediction that DraftKings will beat and raise quarterly guidance, that’s not a far-fetched wager. That’s because the company already boosted its revenue outlook multiple times this year. Following the release of its second-quarter financials in August, the gaming company raised its annual sales forecast to $1.21 billion to $1.29 billion, up from the guidance of $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion issued in May.

Football Momentum Is Palpable

Football is the most wagered-on sport in the US, and there’s significant momentum for operators on this front because the number of states offering regulated sports wagering is far higher today than it was a year ago. Today, 26 states and Washington, DC are in the live and legal camp, and Connecticut and others could join before the end of the current football campaign.

Data confirms that football is indeed material for betting operators. The sport drives an estimated 35 percent to 40 percent of annual revenues for sportsbooks, with a third of those yearly sales arriving in the fourth quarter.

DraftKings offers mobile sports betting in 13 states and retail-only wagering in Mississippi and New York. Those numbers could increase in the coming months.