Electoral College Odds Predict Democratic Win, But Biden Remains Unpopular Among Bettors

Posted on: April 16, 2020, 05:00h. 

Last updated on: April 16, 2020, 06:14h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More

Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.

Odds on the Electoral College outcome this November have been released on the political exchange PredictIt, and bettors are snagging up shares of a Democratic Party win.

PredictIt has shares on both the Republican and Democratic parties winning by various amounts. They are: 280+, 210-279, 150-209, 100-149, 60-99, 30-59, 10-29, 1-9.

As of Thursday evening, both “GOP by 60-99” and “Dems 60-99” shares were trading at 11 cents. GOP by 30-59 and Dems 30-59 were next at 10 cents each.

Democratic shares in other categories are being purchased at a higher price compared to Republican shares.

Winning Margin               GOP $         Dems $

280+                                 2 cents        5 cents

210-279                            2 cents        9 cents

150-209                            3 cents        8 cents

100-149                            7 cents        9 cents

60-99                               11 cents       11 cents

30-59                               10 cents       10 cents

10-29                                 7 cents        8 cents

1-9                                    4 cents         4 cents

In the rarest event of a tie, PredictIt says the Republican Party’s 1-9 market will be declared the winner. Electoral College votes won by other candidates representing other parties or running independently will have no bearing on the outcome.

Since debuting the Electoral College market yesterday, 200,000 shares have been traded. For an explanation of how the Electoral College works, click here.

In 2016, despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump won the election with 304 electoral votes (a margin of victory of 77 votes).

Bettors and Biden

Political bettors are wagering more money on a Democratic Party 2020 win than on the GOP. But they aren’t overly enthused with Joe Biden being the party’s nominee.

Though recently garnering the endorsements of former President Barack Obama and his 2020 primary challenger, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Biden’s shares of winning in November are at 45 cents.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) is at four cents, and VP Mike Pence at three cents.

Democratic Enthusiasm

Though bettors aren’t under the belief that Biden will beat Trump, they do feel that some Democratic Party candidate will. “Which party will win the 2020 US presidential election?” has Democratic shares at 51 cents, and Republican shares at 49 cents.

The contradiction between the markets shows that bettors still aren’t sold on Biden. That’s different from poll respondents, as the Real Clear Politics polling average of a head-to-head has Biden with a 5.5-point lead.

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is third at 11 cents. The former 2020 presidential candidate said she would accept Biden’s offer should he extend one.

Other notables include Stacey Abrams and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (nine cents), and former First Lady Michelle Obama (six cents).