Harris Holds Slight Edge in Ontario Betting Market for US Presidential Race

Posted on: September 30, 2024, 03:36h. 

Last updated on: September 30, 2024, 04:34h.

Mark Keast Read More
Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.

There’s no better place to go than BetMGM if you’re curious about how much US Presidential betting markets have fluctuated in Ontario over the past few months.

According to polls, the race is razor-thin and could be decided by a few thousand votes when citizens vote on November 5. It’s the tightest race in memory.

Ontario Betting: Odds Reflect Volatility

How do the betting markets see the race? In the US you can’t bet on the election. But in Canada, you can.

In terms of Ontario betting, which has had an open, regulated iGaming market since 2022, several books are in on the betting action.

According to a BetMGM trader, it’s been a rollercoaster ride. Before the Donald Trump and Joe Biden debate in late June, Trump was at -140, Biden at +175, and Vice President Kamala Harris at +5000. After the debate, widely seen as disastrous for Biden, odds shifted to Trump -175, Biden +400, Harris +3300.

When Biden dropped out of the race in July, with Harris then stepping in as the replacement, those odds then shifted to Trump -200, Harris +200.

Sportsbooks Report Steady Betting Action

Before the Trump-Harris debate in September, odds at BetMGM were Trump -135, Harris +110. Then, with many people believing Harris won the debate, the odds moved again to Trump -110, Harris -120.

The odds as of Monday morning at BetMGM? Trump +100, Harris -120.

According to the BetMGM trader, since Biden dropped out, 74% of money in Ontario betting has been on Harris to win.

FanDuel Canada recently relaunched its US Presidential election market, with the odds at Harris -112, Trump -102 as of Monday morning. It’s even tighter at PointsBet Canada: Harris -118, Trump -106.

Even Split in Both Money and Bets

At DraftKings, Harris sits at -125, with Trump at +100.

It’s been steady action,” said Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ director of race & sportsbook operations. “No surprise [in odds fluctuations] as volatility is inevitable.”

Outside of Ontario, on the British Columbia Lottery Corporation’s PlayNow betting site, odds today have Harris at -125 and Trump at -105.

A spokesperson for PointsBet Canada said there has been “significant interest” in terms of both money wagered and amount of bets placed.

“That’s been split pretty evenly between Trump and Kamala, almost the exact same (both money and bets) on each,” the spokesperson said. “In terms of odds fluctuation, the market tends to go back and forth quite a bit. It can change day to day. After the first assassination attempt on Trump, for example, he was a large favorite. But since then Kamala’s odds have consistently come in, and now she’s a slight favorite.”