Jacksonville Jaguars to Play New York Jets In The Rain, “Under” Drops 2 Points

Posted on: December 22, 2022, 11:57h. 

Last updated on: December 22, 2022, 11:57h.

Chris Sheridan Read More
Expertise: Commercial Gaming, Live Casinos, Sports Betting.

The over/under for Jaguars-Jets started out low and has already dropped by two points for tonight’s Thursday night matchup at the Meadowlands, where it will be warm and rainy.

After opening at 39 1/2, the line dropped to 37 1/2 by Thursday morning, and was drawing 59% of handle at BetMGM, spokesman John Ewing said. DraftKings was seeing the opposite, with 59% of handle coming in on the over. But that is a dynamic we have seen throughout the season when it comes to tracking Jets bets. And earlier this season, BetMGM was getting killed by Jets bettors.

What is most important to New York sports fans is the final score, and Gang Green backers need a “W” to keep hope alive. That’s in a season that started with five wins in the first seven games and has brought five losses in their seven most recent matchups. Overall, it is leaving them at 7-7 and on the outside looking in when it comes to the AFC playoff picture.

The Jets are tied with the New England Patriots for eighth place and would lose a tiebreaker to Bill Belichick’s team. They are also one game behind the Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins, who are both favored this weekend against the Colts and Packers, respectively.

The Jets can improve their chances from 14 to 21% with a win. But they’ll have to do so behind Zach Wilson, as the quarterback who gave their fans the most hope, Mike White, remains sidelined with multiple rib fractures. New York is favored by 1.

What Are The Trends To Watch?

Heavy rain is in the forecast, which usually means the teams will be running the ball rather than letting it sail through the wet, windy air at the stadium also known as The Swamp. That’s because that is what the site was before the first football stadium was built there.

If this game is played in the trenches, the Jets are going to have to reverse a trend. They had a season-low 50 rushing yards last week against Detroit, and did not have a run longer than six yards. The Jaguars have injuries on their defensive line and are 16th in the NFL against the run, so it is not like the Jets are facing the Fearsome Foursome.

Their leading non-injured rusher is Michael Carter, who ranks 51st in the NFL with 390 yards. His season-high is 76 yards on 12 carries on Nov. 6 against Buffalo, and his over/under is just 22 1/2.

The Jaguars have won four of six after a 2-6 start, and they kept their own playoff hopes alive last weekend with a 40-34 overtime victory over Dallas. Trevor Lawrence passed for 318 yards and four touchdowns for an offense that produced 33 points after halftime, and won it on a 53-yard interception return by Rayshawn Jenkins in overtime. At 6-8, their best chance of making the playoffs is catching the first-place Tennessee Titans in the AFC South.

Winning out will get the Jaguars in, as they close with the Jets, Texans and Titans. That is not exactly the fiercest competition out there, and Lawrence is coming in with a head of steam, with 14 TD passes and just one interception in his last six games. Lest we forget, he was taken No. 1 overall out of Clemson one pick before the Jets took Wilson No. 2 out of BYU in 2020. Theirs is the sideshow that most bears watching.

How to Wager This One?

The quarterbacks may have been separated by only one pick on draft day two years ago, but Lawrence has been distinguishing himself with his talent. That’s while Wilson has been missing open receivers, looking lost, and failing to hold himself accountable for his shortcomings, most notably after the Jets’ 10-3 loss to the Patriots that cost him his starting job.

The kid is not exactly brimming with confidence, but he passed for 317 yards and a touchdown against the Lions and was not horrible. His passing yardage over/under is 198 1/2, and that seems as though that may be a reach, given the weather conditions that are forecast. Lawrence’s over/under is 214 1/2, a number he has surpassed in five of the last six games, none of which were played in a downpour with the wind blowing.

Rain forces teams to run and to hold onto the ball with two hands. It is bad for place kickers, bad for punters, and bad for tailgaters who planned to barbeque in the parking lots and enter the stadium late, as Jets fans are prone to do.

For bettors, the elements can be friendly if you approach the game with the mindset of a coach: This is a must-win game for both teams, and up-the-middle runs tend to create long possessions and a clock management game that would appear to favor the “under” hitting.

And remember, the under is the only wager in the wagering game that is a winner the moment the game starts and stays that way until the over comes in.

New York has gone under in two straight and seven of nine, and the Jets have nine unders in 14 games. Only the Ravens, Bucs, Bills, and Broncos have gone under more. As for the point spread, the Jags are 6-8-0 against the spread and the Jets are 8-6-0. With a 1-point line, there is a huge chance of a push, especially in the rain.

If the Jets emulate what their coach was doing back in August, they should be doing quite a bit of running:

The rain brings the prospect of a shutout, and the Jets are +2000 to clank the Jaguars, while Jacksonville is +2500 to hold New York scoreless. We have already seen New York play New England to a 3-3 tie through four quarters, so we know they have a lack of offense card that could be played. The Jags? Their lowest point total has been 6 back in Week 5, when they were the only team to lose to the Houston Texans.

That was a bad loss. But Jacksonville has come up with wins against likely playoff teams Dallas, Tennessee, and Baltimore in three of their last four games. The Jets are dragging in a three-game losing streak and need to stop telling themselves they played OK despite losing to the Vikings, Bills, and Lions.

If you like one of these teams to be held below 10 points, DraftKings has a +215 line for “No” on both teams to score 10-plus points. Do we believe that to be likely? Well, a downpour is a downpour. It is not eco-friendly to NFL offenses. If is wasn’t for artificial turf, we would be confident predicting a mud game. As it is, we do not hate the idea that there could be several fumbles, and those sometimes lead to safeties. “Yes” on a safety is +800, and for what it is worth, that is part of the wet football gambling strategy. Good luck and stay dry.