Next James Bond Odds & Prediction Markets: Who Will Be Cast as 007?

Following Daniel Craig’s final role as James Bond in No Time to Die, there have been years of speculation regarding who will succeed him as 007. The good news is that we may finally be closer to finding out. That’s because the audition process to find the next world-famous secret agent has begun.

The Bond brand will have a different feel from the Craig era. Amazon acquired the franchise in 2025, and director Denis Villeneuve and scriptwriter Steven Knight were quickly hired. Experienced casting director Nina Gold is tasked with finding the best man for the job. So, which devilishly handsome young actor will be handed the license to kill? 

Over 20 names currently feature on this Polymarket prediction market. Let’s take a closer look at the odds, key price movements, and leading candidates.

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The Current “Next James Bond Actor” Odds

Luther and The Wire favorite Idris Elba was the frontrunner for many months. His “Yes” price was 96¢ on January 25. However, after the actor himself said that Bond shouldn’t become “woke” and questioned whether some viewers would accept a black 007, he doesn’t even feature on this Polymarket market today. 

Other established actors also appear to be long shots. Henry Cavill, Cillian Murphy, and Tom Hardy are all currently given a less than 5% probability of landing the role. That’s because those in charge seem to be favoring future Hollywood stars.

Callum Turner | 34% Chance | Yes 37¢

Callum Turner is a name that just won’t go away. Life surely can’t get much better for the British actor. Fresh from his marriage to superstar singer Dua Lipa, the former fashion model was personally endorsed for the Bond role by George Clooney. 

Turner received critical acclaim for his performances in The Masters of the Air and The Boys in the Boat. The 36-year-old is currently 34% on Polymarket to be named 007.

Aaron Taylor-Johnson | 46% Chance | Yes 71¢

However, the favorite at Polymarket is Aaron Taylor-Johnson. His probability sits at 46%, up 23.1% from July 13. Some tabloids have reported that the Englishman has been offered the role by Eon Productions. This perhaps explains his “Yes” trade price of 71¢ at Polymarket. 

The 28 Years Later, Bullet Train, and Kick-Ass star has been tight-lipped on the rumors. However, another factor in his favor is his long-standing partnership with Omega, the official Bond watchmaker.

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Next James Bond Prediction Markets: Who Are The Outsiders?

While the inclusion of former Bond Pierce Brosnan and Hollywood A-lister Timothy Chalamet seems unnecessary, it wouldn’t surprise many if an outsider ultimately got the Bond role. Former director Martin Campbell preferred Henry Cavill and Clive Owen to Daniel Craig. 

However, producer Barbara Broccoli convinced Campbell thanks to Craig’s performance in Layer Cake. That’s why no actor should be ruled out at this stage. Here are some of the others in the running:

• Josh O’Connor | Yes – (1.3¢) | 1% chance
• Jack Lowdon | Yes – (33.4¢) | 18% chance
• Jacob Elordi | Yes – (5.9¢) | 4% chance
• Theo James | Yes – (3.3¢) | 3% chance
• Tom Holland | Yes – (1.2¢) | 1% chance
• Paul Mescal | Yes – (3¢) | 2% chance

Will Callum Turner Be The Next James Bond? 

As one of the favorites for the 007 role on Polymarket, Turner’s chances are worth exploring in more detail. His probability actually dropped to 28% on July 13 this year. While some Bond fans have praised his height and charm, others have questioned whether his demeanor fits the role of a secret agent. 

The significant drop in odds could also have been impacted by quotes from Debbie McWilliams. The former casting boss, who has worked on Bond movies for 40+ years, was clear in her thoughts that Turner’s profile should rule him out. She included Jacob Elordi when saying: 

“It is absolutely essential that [Bond] remains a total enigma. I don’t want to see any of them as Bond because we now know so much about them. We want to know as little about them personally as possible, because that’s what spies are.”

Debbie McWilliams, former casting boss

Despite this, Turner is still more than 10% clear of Lowdon and other rivals in Polymarket’s prediction markets. However, this market will only be resolved if he is cast as the next James Bond before December 31, 2026.

The Next James Bond Actor: The Final Word

If you’re new to trading on Polymarket, the aim of the game is to buy and sell contracts. You will trade against others, rather than going up against the house. Prices fluctuate based on real-life events, including news reports, quotes from the casting team, and other acting roles cast. 

I suggest tracking markets consistently. This will help identify trading opportunities before it’s too late. For example, many purchased “Yes” contracts on Idris Elba to be the next Bond when he was priced at 96¢. However, many have since sold after the Head of State actor effectively ruled himself out of the running. 

Aaron Taylor-Johnson is the current frontrunner on Polymarket. However, Callum Turner is pushing him close, and Josh O’Connor, Jacob Elordi, and Tom Francis are still attracting investment from traders. With auditions reportedly ongoing, it could well be a pivotal period for this prediction market.

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