Trudeau Resigns: Canada’s Political Shake-Up and Betting Impact

Posted on: January 6, 2025, 10:40h. 

Last updated on: January 7, 2025, 08:59h.

Mark Keast Read More
Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.

Justin Trudeau has announced he’s stepping down as Prime Minister of Canada, a move that sets in motion what will be a hurricane of activity on the Canadian political front heading into 2025. And betting markets are taking notice.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces he is stepping down as leader. (Image: CP)

Trump Impact

The Monday morning announcement by Trudeau is the latest episode of political turmoil created by the resignation of Trudeau’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland just before Christmas, in part over a public dispute between Trudeau and Freeland about Liberal government economic policies.

In particular, there was reportedly disagreement on how to deal with 25% tariff threats made by incoming US President Donald Trump, mainly around Trump’s dissatisfaction about how seriously the Canadians take border security.

Minority Government Hangs By a Thread

Said Freeland, in her December 16 resignation announcement posted on X:

Upon reflection, I have concluded that the only honest and viable path is for me to resign from the Cabinet. To be effective, a Minister must speak on behalf of the Prime Minister and with his full confidence. In making your decision, you made clear that I no longer credibly enjoy that confidence and possess the authority that comes with it.”

Freeland added that “For the past number of weeks, you [Trudeau] and I have found ourselves at odds about the best path forward for Canada. Our country today faces a grave challenge. The incoming administration in the United States is pursuing a policy of aggressive economic nationalism, including a threat of 25 per cent tariffs.”

Trudeau Down in Polls

Trudeau, whose government was elected to power in 2015, is immensely unpopular with the Canadian electorate. Angus Reid’s “Trudeau Tracker” had him at an approval rating of 22% as of December 24. The past few weeks have seen the Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada Liberal caucuses all telling him to resign.

The minority Liberal government is hanging by a thread with the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre far ahead in the polls at 44.2% according to Monday morning CBC polling. That lead means Conservatives are projected to win 227 seats and form a majority government.

A nonconfidence vote bringing down the Liberal government would require the support of the New Democratic Party under Jagmeet Singh, a party that has been propping up the Liberals via an agreement between those two parties. The spotlight is now firmly on Singh’s intentions going forward.

Mark Carney a Frontrunner to Replace Trudeau

The spotlight is also on who will replace Trudeau and lead the Liberals into the next election, scheduled for Oct. 20, 2025. Mark Carney, Freeland, Melanie Joly (Minister of Foreign Affairs), and Dominic LeBlanc (who replaced Freeland as Minister of Finance) are some of the names being bandied about.

Carney, the economist and banker, who served as governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020, would be interesting, since he would represent a fresh face from outside Trudeau’s inner circle, unsullied from the current day turmoil.

Carney would represent a credible reset in terms of Liberal economic policy and could potentially bring Liberals disillusioned by Trudeau’s leadership back into the tent. How that would impact the Conservative edge in the polls is currently a big question.

If Trudeau decides to prorogue Parliament (scheduled to reconvene from Christmas break on January 27) that would delay any nonconfidence vote. Assuming the NDP would join the Conservatives in a nonconfidence vote following the tabling of a new legislative agenda under a new Liberal leadership, that would take Canada into a summertime national vote.

Betting Markets

Trudeau’s announcement was immediately felt on prediction markets, including Polymarket, which posted the following on Monday morning:

  • Canada election called by April? (61% chance that it will, $129,204 volume)
  • Next Prime Minister of Canada (91% chance it will be Poilievre, Freeland at 6%, on $283K volume)
  • Trudeau no confidence motion passes in 2024? (1% chance it will, $415,884 volume)

BetMGM has the Conservatives firmly entrenched as betting favorites at -2000 vs. the Liberals at +900. And FanDuel was fast out with a new betting market: “What day with the 45th Canadian Federal Election be held?” Winter (before or during Feb. 2025) is +380; Spring (March – May 2025) is -260, Summer (June – Sept. 2025) is +200; Fall (Sept. – Oct. 19th, 2025) is +550; Scheduled date (Oct. 20) is +1700.

A proroguing of Canadian Parliament would also place a proposed national advertising standards for sports betting bill very much in doubt.

“I don’t think this changes the pathway for the igaming advertising bill, just delays it, obviously,” said Mark Harper, head of emerging markets at BVGroup, particularly online casino. “Certainly doesn’t change any of the strategies that BVG had planned.”