Kalshi Investor Andreesen Horowitz Sees Non-Sports Prediction Markets Growth
Posted on: June 1, 2026, 11:34h.
Last updated on: June 1, 2026, 11:34h.
- Venture capital firm’s a16zcrypto arm says sports event contracts declining as a share of total volume on Kalshi
- Other categories are growing rapidly as a percentage of Kalshi turnover
- a16z’s parent company is a major Kalshi investor
A company with a stake in Kalshi says that while sports event contracts remain a key contributor to the prediction market operator’s overall volume, other categories are starting to pick up some slack.
In a recent report, a16zcrypto — the cryptocurrency and prediction markets investing arm of Andreesen Horowitz — acknowledged that while as recently as March sports derivatives represented a significant portion of turnover on Kalshi, data indicate traders are embracing other categories.
At the time of the Kalshi Research Conference in March earlier this year, sports trading had just hit nearly $3 billion in weekly volume — roughly 80% of Kalshi’s total, largely driven by March Madness,” observes the investment firm. “But the more revealing stat? Sports as a share of total volume was actually at an all-time low even as its absolute volume hit an all-time high.”
A recent study by the Pew Research Center indicates that from July 2024 through April 2026, sports event contracts accounted for 80% of volume on Kalshi, which is the largest prediction market operator in the U.S.
Other Categories Growing Rapidly on Kalshi
It’s no secret that Kalshi and the prediction markets industry at large when to shed the image that their no more than alternatives to traditional sports wagering. For its part, Kalshi has expanded its menu to include event contracts on commodities, fine art and luxury watches, among other categories, while attempting to boost its utility for institutional investors.
a16zcrypto notes that while sports derivatives are table-setters that get some traders and bettors through the Kalshi door, other segments are growing, too.
“Every other category was growing faster. The Kalshi co-founders pointed to entertainment, crypto, politics, and culture as categories showing stronger user-growth — and better volume-retention cohorts than sports,” according to the firm.
Polymarket — Kalshi’s most direct competitor — is more balanced in volume terms. Over the July 2024 to April 2026 period cited in the Pew survey, sports event contracts represented 39% of Polymarket’s turnover with cryptocurrency and political derivatives combining for 52%.
Non-Sports Growth Essential for Prediction Markets
By some estimates, prediction markets volume could reach $1 trillion or more by 2030. Getting there requires growth outside the realm of sports — something the industry is likely to embrace because it means top-line growth and less legal scrutiny than what operators have encountered by diving into sports event contracts.
Additionally, reducing dependence on sports derivatives could position prediction markets to focus on one of the industry’s original intents — providing potentially superior alternatives to traditional forecasts and polls.
“First of all, the simple fact that they provide a probability estimate is a superpower. Polls and surveys, by contrast, just give an opinion share — and to convert that into a probability, you have to reason statistically about how the share you measured relates to the overall population,” notes Scott Kominers of a16zcrypto. “Polls also typically reflect just a snapshot in time, whereas prediction markets can update in real time as new participants and/or new information arrives.”
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