Kevin O’Leary Suggests Bettors Better Than Pollsters at Predicting Election Outcomes

Posted on: August 12, 2024, 03:14h. 

Last updated on: August 13, 2024, 09:01h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More
Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.

Businessman and serial entrepreneur Kevin O’Leary, the self-described “Mr. Wonderful” best known for his longstanding tenure on “Shark Tank,” said during a recent appearance on Fox Business that he turns to bettors — not pollsters — to gauge the most accurate heartbeat of a political race.

Kevin O'Leary 2024 odds political betting
Kevin O’Leary during an episode of “Shark Tank.” O’Leary, the Canadian-born businessman and television personality, thinks bettors are more accurate forecasters of election outcomes than pollsters. (Image: ABC)

During an interview with Stuart Varney, O’Leary, 70, said he thinks betting activity is a more reliable predictor of a race than polls.

I’d rather go with the Vegas bettors in terms of looking at election results. They’re better than the pollsters, frankly, if you look at the history,” O’Leary said.

Technically, there are no political bettors in Las Vegas, as Nevada doesn’t permit its licensed sportsbooks to take action on election results. No state with legal sports gambling allows election wagering, but the practice is widespread throughout the United Kingdom and Europe.

In the US, many bettors wishing to place a financial stake on elections do so through controversial political wagering exchanges. Such online platforms facilitate the buying and selling of election outcome shares between players in a peer-to-peer arrangement.

Political betting is also allowed in parts of O’Leary’s native Canada, including Ontario. After the failed assassination attempt of Donald Trump in July, FanDuel and BetMGM in Canada removed their 2024 odds on the US election.

Political Markets’ Accuracy

Political betting exchanges remain relatively new, but such websites did get the 2016 election right while nearly all polls had Hillary Clinton up big ahead of the contest against former President Donald Trump. The consensus odds on political exchanges also correctly predicted that Joe Biden would oust Trump from the White House nearly four years ago.

So, what do the odds currently say? Polymarket, a decentralized cryptocurrency exchange, has Kamala Harris favored on November 5 with her odds giving her an implied chance of 52% to become the 47th president of the United States. Trump’s shares are at implied odds of 46%.

UK bookmakers that offer traditional odds on US elections also have Harris as the front-runner. High-street betting shops have the vice president at 4/5 (-120). A winning $100 bet on that line would net $80.

Trump, once a big favorite before President Joe Biden decided to heed calls from his party leaders to exit the 2024 race, is now the underdog. The former casino owner’s 2024 odds are at even money, with a winning $100 bet netting $100.

Robert Kennedy, Jr. is a distant third at 100/1.

Too Soon to Predict

O’Leary thinks the betting markets will provide more useful insights once the policy discussion between Harris and Trump heats up and possible debates between the two are held.

I don’t think anybody can call this race right now. We’ve got to get into the policy wars and hopefully the debate wars,” O’Leary said.

“I want to remind you that back when Trump was debating Clinton, there was a Sunday when the football games were on and I found myself watching the debate and being more entertained than football,” O’Leary continued. “I think the potential of a Harris-Trump debate is going to be great television.”