VEGAS BETTING REPORT: Bears’ Super Bowl Surge Leads NFL Midseason Betting Surprises

The Chicago Bears’ emergence as a legitimate Super Bowl threat is perhaps the biggest NFL betting storyline as the season approaches its halfway point, according to DraftKings director of sports operations Johnny Avello.

The Bears are coming off a convincing 34-17 win over the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks on Monday night and are now +750 to win the championship in futures at DraftKings, behind only the San Francisco 49ers (+550) and Buffalo Bills (+600).

With the NFL trade deadline Nov. 10, the Bears jumped the gun and completed a major trade Oct. 29 with the Tennessee Titans, bringing in All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and a fifth-round pick (2028) in exchange for two first-round selections (2027 and 2028) and a fourth-rounder (2027). 

Simmons Trade Impacts Bears’ Odds

As Avello said, the Bears, now 6-2, have surged from +3000 to where they are Thursday. The trade came four days before Chicago’s win. Avello said the Bears’ odds went from +1400 to +1200 following the Simmons trade.

Besides the Bears, the NFL’s unpredictable first half has delivered plenty of surprises for sportsbooks, with underdogs winning outright and preseason contenders struggling, Avello added.

Growing parity across the league is the biggest takeaway from the first eight weeks, he said, making it difficult to separate legitimate contenders from the rest of the field.

Parity Challenges Sportsbooks

“There has been a lot of underdogs, big underdogs, win games outright,” Avello told Casino.org. “There’s just a lot of parity in the league now. You can tell by any given week somebody can bite somebody.”

Avello pointed to Cincinnati’s surprisingly competitive game against Tennessee last week – a 43-36 Bengals win in overtime – as an example of how unpredictable NFL results have become.

Chief among those midseason surprises has been Chicago’s rapid rise in the Super Bowl futures market, where the Bears’ latest performance triggered another wave of betting interest.

National Following for Bears

“We took quite a bit of money on the Bears to win the Super Bowl over the past week or so, mostly over the last couple days because of their showing,” Avello said.

Chicago’s popularity with recreational bettors has amplified that interest. Avello noted that the Bears traditionally attract wagers because of their large national following, even during seasons when they underperform.

As Caleb Williams develops into a leader under an offense-minded coach in Ben Johnson, Chicago has become a team bookmakers must take seriously, Avello said.

Chargers Collapse a Shock

Despite the surprising results halfway through the season, Avello said sportsbooks are rarely caught napping.

DraftKings continually evaluates team performances, adjusts power ratings, and accounts for changing circumstances, including injuries and home-field advantages.

“I don’t think anything catches us off guard. They might for a week or so, but we catch up real fast because we’re constantly monitoring all teams and changing teams’ power ratings when needed,” he said.

Among the unexpected developments, Avello identified the Cleveland Browns’ five victories as an example of a team exceeding preseason expectations.

Giants Another Betting Surprise

Conversely, Avello described the L.A. Rams (4-4) as disappointing and the winless L.A. Chargers (0-7) as a disaster.

The New York Giants (4-2-1) have also surprised, overcoming significant injuries, including at quarterback, to lead the NFC East.

According to Avello, another notable distinction involves how recreational bettors and sophisticated players approach NFL wagering. Recreational customers frequently gravitate toward popular favorites, using moneylines, point spreads, parlays, and same-game parlays.

Pro Bettors Target Underdog Value

Professional bettors, meanwhile, are often more interested in identifying undervalued underdogs.

“Those guys are constantly looking for some value on the dog side,” he said. 

Avello explained that professional bettors examine injuries, motivation, upcoming opponents, and potential scheduling disadvantages before deciding whether an underdog offers value.

They particularly favor teams capable of winning outright while receiving points on the spread.

Looking toward the second half, Avello identified several teams whose performances deserve closer examination.

Broncos Overvalued

The Dallas Cowboys remain frustratingly inconsistent, repeatedly appearing ready to establish momentum before suffering another setback.

The Denver Broncos, despite their 6-2 record and challenging schedule, could also be somewhat overvalued.

The Kansas City Chiefs, however, remain dangerous despite occasional setbacks, while the Las Vegas Raiders have exceeded expectations with veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins helping to develop rookie Fernando Mendoza.

The Buffalo Bills represent another intriguing storyline.

The Bills may have one of football’s premier quarterbacks in Josh Allen, but they continuously struggle to produce defensive stops when games are on the line.

Bills’ Defensive Struggles Raise Concerns

Avello suggested those defensive shortcomings have prevented Buffalo from taking advantage of its championship opportunities.

“That team should have won at least a Super Bowl by now, if not two,” he said. “They’ve got arguably the best player in the league, and they just can’t stop anybody when they need to.”

For sportsbooks, the remaining schedule promises further surprises as contenders emerge, underdogs challenge expectations, and betting markets continue adjusting.

With no team clearly separating itself from the competition, Avello predicted another unpredictable stretch ahead for NFL bettors.