Latino Vote, California Transplants Could Shape Nevada Election Results

Posted on: November 4, 2024, 02:29h. 

Last updated on: November 4, 2024, 03:05h.

Ed Silverstein @casinoorgedsilv Read More
Expertise: Legal, Tribal Gaming.

With a tight race predicted in Nevada between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, political observers point to a couple of recent trends that could help predict who may carry the state.

Kamala Harris, Donald Trump
Kamala Harris (L) and Donald Trump (R) pictured above are neck and neck in Nevada and nationally in the race for the presidency. (Image: Stetson University)

In the final days of campaigning, the two leading candidates are attempting to lure undecided Latino voters in Nevada.

Latinos now represent about a third of the state’s population, and could play a key role as both candidates are trying to capture the state’s coveted six electoral votes.

Traditionally, many Latinos have voted for Democratic candidates but Republicans are hoping that will change on Tuesday as voters consider the issues.

Hispanics Prioritize Economy

“Hispanics, like almost every American, have been devastated by Kamala Harris and Bidenomics, and they’ll be voting with their pocketbooks this election,” David McIntosh, president of the conservative Club for Growth Action, told NBC News last month.

In October, an NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC national poll revealed that Latino voters (34%) said the cost of living was the most important issue in the presidential race, followed by jobs and the economy (20%).

Trump often gets higher marks for handling the economy, according to recent polls. But both candidates have made outreach to the Latino community a campaign priority.

Harris campaigned in Nevada last week with actress and singer Jennifer Lopez, whose parents are from Puerto Rico. Maná, a Mexican pop band, also performed at her rally.

[Trump] has consistently worked to divide us. At Madison Square Garden, he reminded us who he really is and how he really feels,” Lopez said at the Nevada rally.

An offensive joke was made about Puerto Rico at Trump’s Madison Square Garden event by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe.

“It wasn’t just Puerto Ricans that were offended that day, it was every Latino in this country,” Lopez said.

Republicans Flee to Nevada

Another trend seen in Nevada is the number of Californians who have moved into Nevada. In the last four years, some 150K people relocated from California to Nevada. Former Californians comprise some 20% of Nevada’s population.

I think ex-Californians could certainly be a significant help [to making Nevada red in November],” Nevada Republican State Sen. Jeff Stone, a former California state legislator, was quoted by Politico. “They can also explain to Nevadans what Kamala Harris did as a district attorney in San Francisco, as the attorney general in the state of California.”

Joe Dutra is one transplant who relocated with his candy business from California to Reno, Nev.

“In California, you were just a business,” he told Politico. “Here, you’re somebody that’s bringing jobs to the community … [Nevada’s government] was easy to work with, as compared to doing something in California.”

Dutra claims most of the Californians moving to Nevada are just like him — Republicans who “just believe in less regulations and lower taxes.”

California just got to be a communist state,” added Jim DeMartini, a farmer who also moved from California to Nevada. Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), are responsible for the “leftist, anti-business legislature,” DeMartini claimed.

Chuck Muth, a Republican consultant in Nevada, was quoted by the UK Telegraph, saying “There are Californians who fled California and moved to Nevada because they wanted to get away from [Harris’s] types of policies.”

But NPR reported there are more nonpartisan voters than both Democrats and Republicans in Nevada. Four in 10 registered voters are unaffiliated with either the democrats or republicans.

Harris Edges Trump

Recent polls show that nationally, Trump and Harris are neck and neck. But one poll released on Monday shows Harris has a slight edge nationally.

Harris has a 4-point lead over Trump among likely voters nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. Harris got 51% of likely voters while Trump received 47%. The poll had a 3.5-point margin of error so the results extend past the margin of error. The voters were questioned between October 31 and November 2.