Meta Explored Kalshi Acquisition Before Pivoting to In-House ‘Arena’ App

• Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg personally met with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour in 2025 to discuss a potential takeover of the prediction market platform
• The informal talks broke down over valuation disputes and internal Meta concerns regarding the complex legal and regulatory landscape of real-money gambling
• Instead of buying, Meta is now internally testing “Arena”—a standalone, points-based prediction app that lets users wager “play money” on trending news topics

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) reportedly kicked the tires on a takeover of prediction-market giant Kalshi last year, but the early-stage discussions failed to advance.

NPR reports that at some point in 2025, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg met with Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour about the Facebook parent possibly buying the yes/no exchange. Unidentified sources with knowledge of the matter told NPR the talks didn’t advance beyond an informal stage.

That news surfaces a week after reports confirming Meta’s foray into the prediction market space. Zuckerberg has directed a small number of staffers to work on a project known internally as Arena.

It’d be a prediction market app, but real money would not be involved. Meta previously tried its hand with a prediction market concept called Forecast in 2020, but company pulled the plug on that effort in 2022.

Some experts have noted a prediction market where users aren’t staking real capital may have limited appeal, but it remains to be seen how Meta’s Arena evolves.

Differing View on Why Meta, Kalshi Talks Failed

As NPR reports, there are diverging views as to why the takeover talks between Mansour and Zuckerberg didn’t advance.

Some sources say Mansour, who co-founded Kalshi with Luana Lopes Lara in 2018, wasn’t a willing seller. Others claim Zuckerberg was concerned about the various legal and regulatory battles Kalshi is contending with.

One thing is certain: If Meta had been successful in acquiring Kalshi last year, it likely would’ve done so at a price far below the company’s current private market valuation of $22 billion.

In mid-2025, the prediction market operator was valued at $2 billion, but that multiple vaulted to $11 billion last December before climbing to $22 billion in March.

Recent rumors suggest Kalshi is pursuing another funding round that could value it at $40 billion. Mansour also confirmed the company is considering an initial public offering (IPO), but he didn’t say that’s a sure thing, adding if it happens, it won’t take place this year.

Meta Not Afraid of Acquisitions

Meta isn’t shy about using acquisitions to add platforms and products in an effort to grow its bottom line. Deal-making is how the social media came to own Instagram (2012) and WhatsApp (2014), among other businesses.

For now, it appears Zuckerberg is comfortable with developing an in-house prediction market, but should he grow restless, Meta has ample financial firepower with which to consider related acquisitions.

The company concluded the first quarter with $81.59 billion in cash on hand, or more than 6x Polymarket’s private market valuation of $15 billion. Translation: Meta can buy any prediction market and do so multiple times over, but it’s not clear if that option is on the table.