MGM Resorts Stock Could Be Near-Term Rebound Candidate

Posted on: April 15, 2024, 06:29h. 

Last updated on: April 16, 2024, 09:11h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.

MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) stock is struggling. Shares of the casino operator are lower by 4.1% year-to-date, badly lagging the S&P 500, and things have been worse in recent days as highlighted by a 7.45% decline over the past week.

Cosmopolitan Las Vegas parking casino
The Cosmopolitan Las Vegas. Analysts believe shares of operator MGM Resorts International can bounce back. (Image: Casino.org)

Still, some analysts are bullish on the stock, suggesting it could be a credible candidate for a near-term rebound. That assessment comes ahead of the operator’s first-quarter earnings report, which is slated for Wednesday, May 1 after the close of US markets. That could be a catalyst for the moribund stock as could its favorable technical setup.

Specifically, MGM is trading within one standard deviation of its 126-day moving average. According to data from Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, six similar signals occurred over the past three years, and the stock finished higher 67% of the time, with an average 4.4% one-month gain,” notes Schaeffer’s Investment Research. “From its current perch, a comparable move would put MGM Resorts stock at nearly $45 per share. “

In plain English, when MGM has exhibited similar technical traits comparable to what the stock is sporting today, the shares often rally. Add to that, as noted by Schaeffer’s, MGM is oversold, indicating it could be ready to rebound.

Analysts Bullish on MGM Resorts Stock

While shares of MGM have struggled this year, the stock remains a favorite among sell-side analysts. In new coverage of the name on Monday, Seaport Research analyst Vitaly Umansky rated MGM a “buy” with a $56 price target.

His positive view on the gaming stock stems from expected strength in Macau where he sees gross gaming revenue (GGR) posting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% from 2023 through 2025. Las Vegas-based MGM owns 56% of MGM China, which runs two integrated resorts in the Special Administrative Region (SAR). Bank of America analyst Shaun Kelley is also bullish on MGM.

“In Macau, we expect large beats for MGM Resorts International and Wynn, driven by share gains,” noted Kelley.

In Las Vegas where MGM is the largest operator, Kelley sees the company posting first-quarter results that are in line with estimates, but that’s better than rival Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR), which the analyst sees missing forecasts.

Encouraging baccarat trends could support upside to first-quarter results for MGM and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN), according to the analyst.

Other Catalysts for MGM Resorts Stock

On the more speculative side of the ledger, there are other catalysts for MGM, but it remains to be seen if they materialize. Those include the possible sales of lagging regional casinos in Massachusetts and Ohio. However, the operator hasn’t publicly confirmed its operating rights to those venues are on the market.

On the fundamental side of the ledger, MGM could create more confidence among investors by continuing to repurchase stock, lowering debt, and showing that BetMGM is making progress against rivals such as DraftKings and FanDuel.