NBA 2027 Champions – Who are the Leading Contenders?

The 81st season of the National Basketball Association (NBA) will commence in October 2026, as the New York Knicks look to defend the title that they won so impressively against the San Antonio Spurs back in June.

The offseason has already seen some significant trades, with Giannis Antetokounmpo heading to Miami Heat after 13 seasons with the Bucks. The Philadelphia 76ers have added both Jaylen Brown and the legendary Lebron James to their roster, with the pair leaving Boston and the Lakers respectively.

The arrival of Brown and James has impacted the prediction markets significantly, with the 76ers now afforded a 13% chance of winning the upcoming NBA Championship. This has increased from just 1.1% on July 1st, making them third favorites behind the Thunder and the Spurs.

We’ll explore the market in more detail below, addressing its movements so far and the trades that offer optimal value.

Note: Our exclusive Polymarket promo code (CORG) will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. Looking for other markets? Here’s a list of the best sports prediction markets.

Odds and Probability – How Has the Early NBA Winner Market Moved So Far? 

The rise of the 76ers shows just how sensitive prediction markets are to breaking news, with the franchise having been largely ignored by traders prior to their high-profile additions in July. 

Perhaps more surprisingly, the Knicks have a current win probability of just 10% ahead of the 2027 campaign. This is despite their championship win over the Spurs in June, when they prevailed 4-1 in the best-of-seven series finals.

Various factors are discouraging traders from backing the Knicks. Firstly, the franchise lacks the roster depth of either the Thunder or the Spurs, while they must compete in the more challenging Eastern field. 

It’s also historically difficult to win back-to-back NBA Championships, with this having been achieved just 23 times in 80 campaigns (28.7%). So, the Knicks will also have the weight of history against them during their title defense. 

Both the Thunder and the Spurs have seen their own implied probability values decline in recent weeks, potentially creating increased value for traders. They were the two most dominant franchises last season with respective regular season win rates of .780 and .756, while both sides have strengthened smartly during the offseason.  

Finding Value – Exploring the Best Value NBA Market Picks

This market has remained steady since July 25th, with the summer NBA Draft concluding 24 hours previously. 

The Spurs benefited from a particularly productive draft, securing the services of 19-year-old Jayden Quaintance to provide an ideal foil for Victor Wembanyama’s height and versatility.

There may not be significant movement again until preseason starts on October 3rd, although the potential for further trades (such as Kawhi Leonard’s proposed move from the Clippers to the Toronto Raptors) could impact prices in the near-term.

Despite this, now is the ideal time to consider your options and identify the best value market picks.

Oklahoma Odds – Will the Thunder Deliver on Their Status as Favorites?

“Oklahoma Thunder” | “Yes” at 22¢ | 22% Chance

The Thunder had a 40% win probability when the market opened on May 14th. This was when Oklahoma were still the favorites to win last season’s Championship, and prior to their dramatic 4-3 loss to the Spurs in the Western Conference final.

The Thunder’s implied probability has since fallen as low as 18%, before settling at 22% on July 25th. 

Oklahoma have been the most consistent performers across the previous two seasons, recording respective win percentages of .829 and .780 in 2025 and 2026. They also retain the services of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has been crowned the regular season MVP in the last two campaigns.

He’s backed by an excellent support cast, too, with Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren (who averaged 8.9 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game) performing superbly throughout last season. The addition of Aday Mara in the 2026 draft also adds much-needed height and passing guile to their roster.

Ultimately, the Thunder remain the NBA’s most consistent franchise, while their roster depth and the quality of clutch players like Gilgeous-Alexander is hard to ignore. Their current price of 22¢ therefore offers considerable value, so consider buying now and selling should this exceed 40¢ during the regular season.

San Antonio Spurs Odds – Have the Markets Overreacted to a Poor NBA Finals Performance?

“San Antonio Spurs” | “Yes” at 21¢ | 21% Chance

The San Antonio Spurs were the heavy favorites to defeat the Knicks, only to be undone by an uncharacteristically high number of turnovers and an increasingly passive offense as the finals progressed. 

This saw their win probability for 2027 drop from a peak of 32% on June 1st to just 16%, although it has since recovered marginally to sit at 21%.

This mini-recovery was inspired by the NBA Draft, with the Spurs moving to provide high-quality cover for the incredible Victor Wembanyama and create a more aggressive frontcourt lineup. In addition to Quaintance, the franchise snapped up Tarris Reed Jr., Ja’Kobi Gillespie, and Maliq Brown.

As for Wembanyama, he excelled throughout the last campaign, recording an incredible 3.1 blocks and 11.5 rebounds per game in the regular season alone. He’s expected to improve further in 2026/27, too, with generational talents known to develop significantly between the ages of 21 and 23 (especially from a tactical perspective).

The Spurs offer incredible depth and consistency, while traders may have overreacted to the poor performances of individuals like De’Aaron Fox in the 2026 finals. So, consider buying “Yes” at the current price of 21¢, as this has the potential to increase above 35¢ throughout the regular season.

New York Knicks Odds – Can They Continue Their Reputation as a Clutch Team?

“New York Knicks” | “Yes” at 12¢ | 12% Chance

We’ve already touched on the challenges facing the Knicks, from a relative lack of roster depth to the historical difficulty of winning back-to-back NBA titles.

The Knicks also endured a challenging draft too, with neither Jack Kayil or Tyler Nickel likely to earn many minutes on court next season. Kayil is expected to remain overseas during the next campaign, while Nickel (the 47th overall draft pick) is considering a return to college basketball.

However, the franchise has returned all of its truly elite starters: namely Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges. Brunson starred during the NBA finals and averaged 28.4 PPG in the postseason, highlighting his exceptional ability as a clutch player.

As a collective, the Knicks ranked second in last season’s NBA for clutch situations, outscoring their opponents by 20.5 points per 100 possessions in the final five minutes of matches.

Mike Brown’s men are clearly durable and highly competitive, so they’re definitely undervalued at a current price of just 12¢ (up from 9¢ on August 8th). So, consider buying “Yes” shares now, with a view to scaling your exit and potentially selling in increments during the course of the season.

The Last Word – What About the 76ers and Their Odds?

Traders have rushed to back the 76ers after the addition of Brown and James, with the price of “Yes” shares having now settled at 13.2¢. James’ arrival has been particularly impactful, but it’s worth noting that just one of his four career NBA titles has been won in the last decade.

Overall, this rush to market has caused Philadelphia to be significantly overpriced, with the true probability of a 76ers title win much lower than the 13% currently implied.

Buying “No” shares here offers minimal upside too, so we’d recommend avoiding the 76ers in the market.

When trading “Yes” on options like the Knicks, remember that you can scale your exit by selling your position in stages. Depending on how the price moves, this may enable you to bank an early profit, while letting the remainder of your capital ride.

With the market relatively settled at present, now is the ideal time to trade various outcomes. Just remember to track your open positions daily, while also following the latest news and results once the regular season gets underway.

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