Nevada Voters Favor Donald Trump Over Kamala Harris in RealClearPolitics Tracker

Posted on: October 14, 2024, 02:45h. 

Last updated on: October 14, 2024, 02:45h.

Ed Silverstein @casinoorgedsilv Read More

Expertise: Legal, Tribal Gaming.

Nevada is now seen as slightly backing former President Donald Trump in next month’s presidential election, according to a poll tracker from RealClearPolitics that was reported this weekend.

Trump edges out Vice President Kamala Harris by 48.2% to 48%. Previously, RealClearPolitics put Harris as the victor in Nevada.

With this flip in Nevada, Trump is projected to not only win Nevada, but also will win the presidency, with Trump predicted to win 302 Electoral College votes, according to RealClearPolitics. Harris is predicted to win 236 Electoral College votes, according to RealClearPolitics.

The flip for Trump in Nevada follows a Wall Street Journal poll which took place between September 28 and October 10, and showed Trump leading Harris 49% to 43%.

When just including Trump and Harris, Trump was 6 points ahead. When including third-party candidates, too, Trump was 5 points ahead.

The poll was conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO, and questioned 600 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Others Say Harris Leading in Nevada

In contrast, Newsweek reported that the Silver Bulletin, from pollster Nate Silver, reported recently that Harris had a 1.5-point lead in Nevada.

In addition, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average reported recently the race much closer in Nevada. Harris led Trump by 0.5 points.

Also, last week Harris was favored by 48.1% of those questioned, according to a poll that was released by Emerson College, KLAS TV in Las Vegas, and The Hill. But Trump was very close with 47.3% backing him. Point-nine percent of respondents said they back neither leading candidate, while another 2.7% remain undecided.

The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.2%, making the race too close to call at this time, according to the Emerson College poll.

Catholic Voters

Among Nevada and other swing states, Trump is ahead of Harris among Catholic voters, according to a National Catholic Reporter poll released on Monday.

Some 50% percent of Catholics in these states back Trump. About 45% support Harris.

A total of 1,172 Catholic voters were questioned in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin between October 3 and 8. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.86%.

When breaking it down by religion, the Las Vegas area has an estimated 800,000 people who are Catholic.

Betting Odds

Last week, Casino.org reported that betting odds continue to shift in Trump’s favor.

Trump is the betting front-runner with implied odds of 53%. Harris has become the underdog, with an implied winning chance of below 47%. These percentages were reported last Tuesday by Polymarket, a decentralized peer-to-peer wagering platform.

In other betting circles, Ladbrokes has Trump at 5/6 (-120) for implied odds of 54.5%. Harris is at even money (+100) for implied odds of 50%. Paddy Power also has Harris even but Trump at 10/11 (-110) for implied odds of 52.3%. William Hill has Trump and Harris each at -110.