NFL Demands Prediction Markets Drop ‘Objectionable Bets’ Over Integrity Fears

The NFL has doubled down on its call for prediction markets to stop offering sports event contracts it says are vulnerable to manipulation, insider information, or other threats to the integrity of its games.

In a letter sent Thursday (September 3) to federally regulated designated contract markets (DCMs), NFL Chief Compliance Officer Sabrina Perel said exchanges were continuing to list contracts the league had identified as problematic months ago.

“It is deeply concerning that bets within the objectionable categories that we identified months ago have been and continue to be listed as contracts on exchanges,” Perel wrote in the letter.

First Pass, Missed Field Goal Markets

Among the contracts the NFL considers easily manipulated are whether a kicker will miss a field goal, whether a quarterback’s first pass will be incomplete, whether a receiver’s first target will be incomplete, and whether a running back will gain fewer than a specified number of yards on his first carry.

The league also objects to markets involving broadcast mentions and celebrity attendance because the outcomes could potentially be influenced by a single person.

Another category involves information that may be known by insiders before it becomes public. These include the first play of a game, starting lineups, trades and signings, coaching decisions, hiring and firing decisions, and live markets on individual NFL Draft picks.

The NFL also wants exchanges to steer clear of contracts involving player injuries and availability, player misconduct, fan safety, penalties, replay decisions, and other officiating outcomes.

The league has long discouraged state-regulated sportsbooks from accepting wagers it considers particularly susceptible to manipulation or inside information. It first approached prediction-market operators with similar concerns in March.

CFTC Weighs Restrictions

The NFL’s intervention comes as regulator the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) considers new rules governing sports event contracts.

Under proposals published in June, the federal regulator said conventional markets based on game results, point spreads, and player or team statistics would generally be unlikely to raise public-interest concerns, provided appropriate safeguards were in place.

But the agency took a markedly different position on some of the markets highlighted by the NFL.

Contracts based on player injuries could create “perverse financial incentives” and expose sensitive medical information, according to the league. Meanwhile contracts based around officials’ decisions could create manipulation concerns because they depend on a small number of decisions by individuals.

Prediction markets have emerged as a major competitor to traditional sportsbooks by offering contracts on sporting events while maintaining they operate as federally regulated exchanges rather than gambling businesses subject to state sports betting laws.

This has triggered legal battles across the country over whether states can regulate their sports contracts as gambling.

The NFL, meanwhile, warned exchanges that continuing to offer the disputed contracts creates risks not only for the integrity of games but also for players, coaches, officials, and prediction-market participants.

“It is imperative that DCMs take further action to remove any objectionable bets,” Perel wrote.