NFL Week 6 Preview: Giving Some Love to the Losers

Posted on: October 17, 2020, 07:46h. 

Last updated on: October 17, 2020, 09:14h.

Bill Huber Read More

Expertise: Sports Betting, Sports.

One man’s trash is another man’s treasure. That’s the case for DraftKings’ Johnny Avello when he looks at the NFL’s Week 6 schedule.

The Green Bay Packers (4-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) showdown features two NFC heavyweights powered by elite quarterbacks, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers and Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady. The Cleveland Browns (4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-0) clash highlights the early slate of the games.

Instead of the big games, Avello – the director of race and sportsbook operations at DraftKings – is focusing on the losers.

Jets, Giants, Falcons Remain Winless

Atlanta Falcons (0-5) at Minnesota Vikings (1-4): The Falcons fired their general manager and coach this week. The Vikings, even without injured running back Dalvin Cook, are 4-point favorites.

The Vikings have grabbed most of the money on this one on the moneyline and the point spread,” Avello told Casino.org. “The game was bet up from 3.5 to 4. The Falcons have a new coach in Raheem Morris. If you look at him, he hasn’t had much success as a head coach. They’re 30th in points allowed, so they’re expecting a lot of points.”

As coach of the Buccaneers from 2009 through 2011, Morris’ record was a woeful 17-31.

Washington Football Team (1-4) at New York Giants (0-5): Washington is 30th in scoring and New York is 31st. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones threw 24 touchdowns in 12 starts as a rookie, but has only two this year. Still, they are the favorites.

“The people like Washington,” Avello said. “The Giants opened 3.5 ,and it’s down to 2.5. What I find interesting is Washington has scored a total of 89 points, and the Giants have scored only 81 points, and that’s with 34 against the Cowboys last week. The schedules have been really difficult for both teams.”

The 43-point total is the lowest of the week.

New York Jets (0-5) at Miami Dolphins (2-3): The Jets have been outscored by 17.2 points per game – a touchdown worse than any other team. The Dolphins, who surprisingly last week crushed the San Francisco 49ers, 43-17, are tied for the biggest favorites of the week.

We know the Jets are winless and they’ve been hopeless,” Avello said. “A lot of this is based on Miami’s performance last week. They were elevated to being an 8-point favorite, and now it’s up to 9.5. That’s how low the Jets have sunk.”

The Jets will be without quarterback Sam Darnold (shoulder) for a second consecutive week.

Packers at Buccaneers

Most eyes will be on the game of the week. With their 4-0 start, the Packers have soared to +900 to win the Super Bowl. That’s the fourth-shortest odds at DraftKings. The Buccaneers are +1,600, tied for the seventh-shortest odds.

That game will be heavily watched and heavily bet,” Avello told Casino.org. “There’s only two afternoon games. Obviously, Jets-Dolphins isn’t going to be watched heavily outside of the New York faithful and Miami faithful. So, the concentration will be Packers-Bucs. That game is going to have a lot of action. People have been betting Tom Brady since he went to that team. They really like the Bucs overall, and the Packers have been great this year.”

Tampa Bay opened as a 1-point favorite. By early in the week, the Packers were 2.5-point favorites. The game has settled in at Green Bay -1. The 55-point total is the second-highest on the board behind the Monday night game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills.

Avello expects a three-team moneyline parlay involving three heavy favorites to be a “fashionable” bet this week.

“You take three teams who they think are going to win the game, but they’re not so sure about them covering the point spread,” Avello explained. “Those three we’re going to see bet on are going to be the Ravens [-9.5] at the Eagles, the Colts [-7.5] at home vs. the Bengals, and the Pats [-7.5] at home vs. the Broncos. If you parlayed the three of those, you’d probably double your money.”

Week 6 Schedule

Here is the NFL Week 6 schedule, with odds from DraftKings as of Saturday evening in parentheses. All times are Eastern.