The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Odds and Predictions

As prediction markets go, the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner is arguably the most speculative. 

After all, while we know there are 287 candidates registered this year (including 208 individuals and 79 organizations), a 50-year secrecy rule prevents us from seeing the official shortlist. This was confirmed towards the end of March, and will feature a much smaller number of potential winners.

Due to the relative lack of information available to traders, price shifts are almost universally driven by sentiment, media narratives, and rampant speculation. 

Although this makes it incredibly difficult to pick a winner, it also creates short-term fluctuations and arbitrage opportunities. So, your focus should be on targeting undervalued outcomes and profiting from implied probability swings.

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Using the PRIO to Help Identify the Best Bets

The good news for traders in 2026 is that the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) shortlist has been released historically early this year.

This coveted list provides an expert assessment of all potential laureates and is completely independent. It has also featured several recent award winners, including Narges Mohammadi in 2023 and Nihon Hidankyo in 2024.

At the very least, having access to this information may make it easier to identify outcomes that are currently underpriced by Polymarket traders. You can then buy “Yes” or “No” shares as required, before looking to sell back to the market and lock in a profit prior to settlement.

Ideally, you should aim to sell all of your shares by the end of September. Otherwise, your capital will remain tied up in an outcome with a low implied probability.

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Which Nobel Peace Prize Nominees Offer the Best Value?

Between 1901 and 2025, individual nominees won the Nobel Peace Prize on 112 occasions. 

Organizations have prevailed on just 31 occasions, highlighting a significant bias towards individuals who best embody the fight against oppression, autocracy, and exile.

You should definitely factor this in when buying shares in the market. Based on all available information, here are a few trades that offer the best value overall.

“Yulia Navalnaya” | “Yes” at 11¢ | 11% Chance

Although the committee’s bias towards individuals can take many forms, recent awards have favored prominent human rights activists who take a principled stance against authoritarian regimes.

Venezuelan politician María Corina Machado, for example, won the award in 2025 for her brave opposition to several leaders (including Nicolás Maduro). Narges Mohammadi also triumphed in 2023, after her continued fight against the oppression of women in Iran.

This trend heavily favors Yulia Navalnaya in 2026. The widow of Alexei Navalny, she has continued to oppose Vladimir Putin’s leadership from exile, creating the ‘Platform of a Future Russia’ that looks to directly combat Kremlin censorship and propaganda. So, in addition to being a highly symbolic choice, Navalnaya remains incredibly active in the fight against a fascistic regime.

Navalnaya was also officially nominated for the award in 2025, emerging as one of the favorites on prediction markets alongside Machado. This means that she’s well known to the committee and clearly fits the profile of who they’re trying to reward.

“Yes” shares on Navalnaya winning are currently priced at just 11¢, and she remains the clear favorite on Polymarket. This price has performed steadily since the market opened and has the potential to increase further in the coming weeks. This outcome also provides the best possible hedge against a potential organizational winner.

“International Court of Justice” | “Yes” at 2¢ | 2% Chance

Interestingly, Navalnaya was absent from the 2026 PRIO shortlist, but the International Court of Justice did make the cut. This organization has always sought to promote global peace, but it has recently become increasingly effective at holding those who breach international law to account.

The ICJ and the International Criminal Court secured the arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte last year, for example, for alleged crimes against humanity. 

Arrest warrants also remain outstanding for Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with their issuance drawing international acclaim and an official award endorsement from the Government of Slovenia.

On a fundamental level, the award’s founder, Alfred Nobel, was a strong proponent of international law and its role in preventing global conflict. So, this is a key criterion the committee uses when shortlisting contenders and announcing winners.

Then there’s the price. Currently, you can buy “Yes” on the ICJ winning for just 2¢, creating significant resale value and huge upside potential. The price peaked at 15¢ on February 2nd, and there’s no reason it cannot reach that level again (or move even higher) before settlement.

“United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)” | “Yes” at 5.6¢ | 5.3% Chance

Humanitarian organizations have won the Nobel Peace Prize on 11 occasions, accounting for 35.4% of all institutional victors. This augurs well for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), which continues to provide a humanitarian lifeline in Gaza amid the ongoing Israeli–Palestinian conflict.

The committee has historically favored frontline organizations that provide aid and shelter, especially in war-torn regions. UNRWA is uniquely positioned to provide this support, thanks to its presence and infrastructure across the globe.

The UNRWA continues to work on the front lines despite being consistently underfunded. It also faces significant physical and military threats, as the opposition to human rights and international law grows globally. 

In this respect, a win for the UNRWA would also be symbolic and serve as a timely reminder of the principles that underpin the Nobel Peace Prize.

The UNRWA price has proved relatively volatile so far, ranging from 1.8¢ to a peak of 16.3¢. It appears undervalued at a current price of just 5.3¢, especially with the UN General Assembly (UNGA) set to convene in early September. This will put the organization back in the spotlight, creating the conditions for a potential price hike.

The Last Word: Navigating a Highly Speculative Prediction Market

Attempting to forecast the winner in this market is incredibly difficult due to the large number of nominees and the limited information available to traders.

Instead, you’ll need to realize short-term arbitrage opportunities by identifying underpriced outcomes and selling your shares prior to the settlement of the market on Friday, 9th October.

Both the ICJ and UNRWA are significantly underpriced at present, at 2¢ and 5.3¢ respectively. I expect both prices to increase before the beginning of October, with the UNRWA likely to benefit from the opening of the 81st UNGA session on September 8th.

You could also consider hedging these picks by buying “Yes” on Yulia Navalnaya at 11¢. She’s the overall favorite on Polymarket, while individuals have won 78.3% of all Nobel Prizes awarded historically. Her price could certainly rise higher in the coming weeks.

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