The Ultimate Portfolio Hedge? Why Wall Street Is Racing to Launch Election Prediction Funds

• SEC filings indicate Roundhill and GraniteShares could roll out political prediction market ETFs in the coming days
• The Roundhill filing indicates an effective date of May 5 while GraniteShares filings show May 8
• The funds will hold event contracts tied to Democrat and Republican presidential, House and Senate fortunes

Forget the polls—watch the ticker. The first SEC-regulated “Election ETFs” are set to go live on May 5, turning political outcomes into a tradable asset.

In February, Roundhill Investments filed plans with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch six ETFs based on the two major parties’ success in the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race.

A Form N-1A filing made by the asset manager earlier this week list an effective date of May 5, indicating the novel funds could debut on that date.

The funds Roundhill may soon be bringing to market are:

• Roundhill Democratic President ETF (BLUP),
• Roundhill Republican President ETF (REDP),
• Roundhill Democratic Senate ETF (BLUS),
• Roundhill Republican Senate ETF (REDS),
• Roundhill Democratic House ETF (BLUH),
• and the Roundhill Republican House ETF (REDH).

The premise behind these funds is easy to understand. Assuming political prognosticators are correct and the Democrats take control of the House in the November midterms, BLUH would be a winning bet while REDH would be essentially worthless.

Conversely, if the GOP surprises REDH holders’ profit while BLUH investors are left, well, feeling blue. The same goes for BLUS and REDS.

Roundhill’s presidential prediction market ETFs are unique in that those funds won’t go away following the 2028 race. Rather, the ETFs, assuming they come to market, will roll into 2032 iterations.

GraniteShares May Join the Party, Too

Soon after Roundhill filed for the aforementioned ETFs in February, Bitwise Investments and GraniteShares did the same and it appears the latter is close to joining the fray.

The issuer’s House and Senate ETFs will function in similar fashion to the proposed Roundhill fund as will the presidential ETFs.

Following this year’s midterms and the 2028 races,  GraniteShares’ political event contract ETFs will also be rolled into funds tied the 2028 midterms and the 2032 presidential contest.

As of this writing, Bitwise hasn’t updated prior filings on its proposed election derivatives ETFs, but that could soon change now that rival launches appear imminent.

All three issuers previously acknowledged they’ll work with Designated Contract Markets (DCMs), but none have revealed from which prediction market they’ll source election-based derivatives.

Roundhill Files Plans for Other Prediction Markets ETFs

New York-based Roundhill is known by gaming investors because it’s the issuer of the Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (NYSE: BETZ) — the first ETF dedicated to online casino and sportsbook operators. The firm has plans for other prediction market ETFs.

In a separate filing, the fund sponsor unveiled plans for the Roundhill Recession Yes ETF (GDPD) and the Roundhill Recession No ETF (GDPU). Presumably, those ETFs, if they come to life, will hold recession yes/no derivatives.