Prediction Markets Are Disrupting Sports Betting. Football Season Will Show the Scale

The NFL and college football seasons are expected to reveal the extent to which prediction markets are impacting sportsbooks.

Since prediction markets began offering trading on events involving sports outcomes in 2025, the gaming industry has cried foul over claims that the financial exchanges were unlawfully poaching customers from sportsbooks.

With the NFL and college football seasons having kicked off, the coming months should paint a more accurate picture of whether the claims are grounded in reality.  

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell shares of sports outcomes, like whether the Kansas City Chiefs will win tonight (Sept. 14) on “Monday Night Football.”

The American Gaming Association (AGA), which represents the regulated sports betting industry, believes prediction markets are hurting sportsbooks, recently suggesting that legal betting on the NFL this year will stall for the first time since 2018.

Calling sports prediction markets “backdoor sports betting,” AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said the platforms regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are “dangerously misleading … by marketing sports wagers as an investment.”

The NFL regular season began last week, and with college football two weeks in, September could provide more clarity into the impact that prediction markets are having on sports betting.

New York Reports Decline

New York is the largest sports betting state, with bettors placing a record $26.3 billion in bets in 2025. Oddsmakers kept $2.55 billion of the bets, also an all-time high.

New York collected $1.32 billion in 2025 tax revenue from sports gambling. Those funds could be at risk, as prediction markets, which aren’t subject to state gaming taxes or fees, continue to gain traction.

New York has experienced continued sports betting growth through July, with several months reporting handle upwards of $2 billion. The World Cup was credited for the early summer surge by bringing in new customers to the legal sportsbook market.

Mobile sportsbooks in New York handled $1.73 billion in wagers last month—down $313 million (15.3%) from the $2.04 billion processed in August 2025. It marks only the second time in state history that monthly handle fell year-over-year.

While some seasonal lull was expected following the conclusion of the World Cup, the coming months will test whether the drop reflects temporary bettor fatigue or the start of the AGA’s predicted stagnation. New Jersey has seen similar pullbacks, with total handle down nearly 4% through July.

Prediction Market Volume

During the opening weekend of the NFL regular season, sports prediction exchanges processed record-setting volume.

Data compiled by prediction market aggregator TicketTracker showed more than $5 billion in sports contracts traded over the opening weekend alone—marking the highest two-day volume in the sector’s history.