Prediction Markets: Will Canada Join the U.S. as 51st State Before July?

Posted on: December 29, 2024, 11:17h. 

Last updated on: December 29, 2024, 11:17h.

Mark Keast Read More
Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.

One of the casualties of the current storm around Canadian national politics was a proposed new national gambling advertising bill.

There is a legislative logjam in the Canadian House of Commons. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is off skiing, with a video of a voter walking up to him in a ski hill parking lot a few days ago, letting him know what she thinks of him (replete with not-for-young-children foul language) making the social media rounds.

Prediction markets like Polymarket are tapping into what’s been a firestorm of news on the Canadian political front, with rumours that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will be stepping down. Image/CP.

National Gambling Ad Bill

Bill S-269, sponsored by Canadian Senator Marty Deacon, calls for the Minister of Heritage Pascal St-Onge to develop new national standards on gaming advertising around what goes into gambling ads, when they run, and the volume of advertising that’s out there.

The Minister would begin a dialogue with provincial lawmakers, Indigenous groups, and gaming regulators to set the new framework.

Liberals Way Down in the Polls

The volume of gambling advertising since the Ontario market went live has been a concern for many people. Operators who entered the market were looking to get a competitive edge.

However the House of Common has been gummed up over a privilege debate involving access to unredacted documents.

The Conservatives and minority Liberal government have been mired in this debate for months, both doling out blame for the other side, which takes precedence over all other House business.

Bill S-269 cleared the Senate earlier this month and awaits First Reading in the House of Commons, the first step in a last chapter towards getting Royal Assent for the bill, where it then becomes law.

The House adjourned though for Christmas break on Dec. 17. Legislators don’t return until Jan. 27. So, will the bill get read and make its way to law before the next election? That’s a big “if”.

Controversial O’Leary Comments

The buzz in Canada now is if the immensely unpopular Trudeau will resign or stay the course to the next scheduled national election – Oct. 20, 2025. His Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned just before Christmas, in part around a response to the hurricane of tariff threats coming from the incoming Donald Trump presidency in the U.S.

An individual walked up to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at a ski hill this past week, telling him to “get the f*%# out of B.C.” Image/X Screenshot

Trump has been batting Trudeau around like a cat toy online – saying Canada is better off as the U.S.’s 51st state, that Trudeau would make a great governor, which this past week had conservative commentator Kevin O’Leary claiming half of the Canadian population would be open to exploring (not accurate according to polls).

Trudeau Immensely Unpopular

Trudeau’s Liberals are way down in the polls – current seat projections see the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre winning a massive majority (as many as 225 seats according to CBC reporting). Support for the Conservatives is around 44%. The Liberals, currently in power with a minority government, are polling at around 21%. Recent polls suggest the Liberals could finish fourth if an election were held today.

Trudeau himself is immensely unpopular in Canada – with a current approval rate of just 28%.

The Liberal party is currently propped up by a deal with the Leftist New Democrat Party. The Sword of Damocles that is a non-confidence vote hangs over their head. The NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, just before Christmas, still wouldn’t commit to bringing down the Liberals.

Betting Markets React

The crypto prediction markets are all over this. Here’s a taste of what’s going on at Polymarket this morning:

  • Will Canada join U.S. as 51st state before July? (4% chance that it will, $198,907 volume)
  • Canada election called before April? (76% chance it will, on $78,010 volume)
  • Trudeau no confidence motion passes in 2024? (1% chance it will, $301,149 volume)

And over at Kalshi there’s this:

  • Will Trump impose new tariffs on Canada before 2026? (65% chance that it will, $4,794 volume)
  • Will there be a successful vote of no confidence in Canada this year (2% chance that it will happen, $46,105 volume)
  • Next government of Canada? (96% chance there will be a Conservative majority, $1,231 volume)
  • Who will be the Canadian Prime Minister after the next operation (91% chance it will be Pierre Poilievre, on $34,567 volume)

As Christmas winds down, we get to New Years, and the cold teeth of winter sets in, the Canadian political scene is showing no signs of cooling off.