President Donald Trump Skipping President-Elect Joe Biden Inauguration, Bettors Right

Posted on: January 8, 2021, 11:01h. 

Last updated on: January 8, 2021, 12:10h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More
Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.

President Donald Trump says he will not attend the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden. If he indeed skips the ceremony, it will be the first time a president hasn’t attended his successor’s swearing-in since 1869.

Trump Biden inauguration odds president
President Donald Trump has no interest in attending the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden. The last time a president skipped an inauguration of his successor was 152 years ago. (Image: NBC News)

A day after Trump pledged a “smooth, orderly, and seamless transition of power,” the 45th president of the United States revealed he will break with tradition. Trump has contested the election results since Nov. 3, prompting speculation — and betting — that he would be absent on the Capitol steps when Biden becomes Commander-in-Chief on January 20.

Political bettors correctly predicted that Trump would not be at Biden’s inauguration. Heavy action on the rather unprecedented move resulted in the line opening at -400 in early December. As continued wagers came in on the President skipping the ceremony, the line shortened to -800.

Following Trump’s tweet, the line is now -3300 (1/33). With implied odds of 97.06 percent, to win $100, a bettor must risk $3,300.

Only three sitting presidents have skipped their successors’ inauguration: Presidents John Adams, John Quincy Adams, and Andrew Johnson.

Presidential Pandemonium

Wednesday was viewed as a terrible day in American history by some lawmakers of various political parties. Two Cabinet secretaries resigned, and Democrats are calling for Trump’s ousting as soon as possible.

The Wall Street Journal reported without attribution that several White House advisors avoided the Oval Office yesterday because the President was “in a dark place.”

“It’s like watching someone self-destruct in front of your very eyes, and you can’t do anything,” said an anonymous advisor to the WSJ.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-California) says she’s met with the Joint Chiefs of Staff regarding Trump’s mental fitness after the President, she claims, ignited the Capitol riots.

If the President does not leave office immediately and willingly, the Congress will proceed with our action [impeachment],” Pelosi said in a letter to House Democrats today.

The PredictIt market asking if Trump will be impeached for a second time has “Yes” shares trading at 78 cents. But bettors feel the billionaire will nonetheless finish out his term, “Yes” shares trading at 73 cents.

As for Trump willfully departing in what would be a resignation, bettors give that scenario a roughly 20 percent chance.

Pardon Predictions

DC rumblings suggest Trump is considering issuing himself a pardon before he departs office. The legality of that is unclear, as it’s never happened in US history.

The odds of Trump self-pardoning himself from federal criminal charges stand at +125 (5/4). That implies a chance of 44.4 percent. The odds of the President pardoning any of his children are at 6/5, implying a 45.5 percent chance.

Trump has issued 70 pardons during his four years in the White House. A few notables include Scooter Libby, former advisor to VP Dick Cheney, Charles Kushner, father to Trump’s son-in-law and advisor Jared Kushner, Paul Manafort, former Trump campaign chair, and Roger Stone, a political consultant, and lobbyist.

One person bettors say won’t receive a pardon is a deceased convicted sex offender and former Trump acquaintance Jeffrey Epstein. The PredictIt market, “Epstein pardon in Trump’s first term?” has “Yes” shares trading at just a penny.