Super Bowl to Generate $1.25B in Regulated Bets, Nevada, NY to Lead

Posted on: February 5, 2024, 07:37h. 

Last updated on: February 8, 2024, 10:23h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.

It’s Super Bowl week, and that means the betting forecasts are coming in hot and heavy. Bettors in the U.S. are expected to plunk down $1.25 billion in regulated wagers on the game.

Las Vegas Super Bowl 2024 LVCVA
Allegiant Stadium, home of the Las Vegas Raiders, is the site of this year’s Super Bowl. The game could generate $1.25 billion in regulated bets. (Image: Getty)

That’s according to Eilers & Krejeck Gaming (EKG), which noted that the Super Bowl is the most wagered-on sporting event in the U.S., accounting for 1% of total handle in this country. In highlighting its $1.25 billion forecast, the research firm said it’s not making a revenue projection because there is lumpiness in such forecasts.

Interestingly, EKG also observed that the primary objective for sportsbook operators with the Super Bowl isn’t so much to make money as it is to acquire new customers and cross-sell other products to those bettors and/or “reactivate” them when the next football season commences. EKG added that in-game or live betting will be a significant contributor at 10% to 15% of Super Bowl handle this year.

That mark is below broader industry averages,” noted the firm. “FanDuel, for example, has previously disclosed that around 44% of handle comes from in-play. However, on in-play, football skews lower and the Super Bowl even lower still due to the high number of recreational customers who overwhelmingly favor pre-match betting.”

The online sports wagering industry has endured some well-documented technological snafus over the past several years, and righting that ship is essential in fostering customer confidence and gaining share in high-growth niches, such as same-game parlays (SGPs) and live betting.

Nevada, New York to Lead State-Level Handle

With Las Vegas playing host to the Super Bowl and the city’s status as the casino hub of the U.S., it’s not surprising that Nevada is expected to be the state-level handle leader.

EKG sees the state accounting for 12.8% of Super Bowl handle, followed by New York at 12.4%. The New York projection isn’t surprising, because the state is the largest with a multi-operator sports wagering market. Those two states are the only ones EKG expects will command double-digit handle share on the big game. New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Illinois round out the top five.

There are some other interesting state-level observations. For example, EKG estimates about 3% of Super Bowl handle will come from Michigan, putting the state behind Arizona, Maryland, Colorado, Virginia, and Massachusetts by that metric, even though Michigan has a larger population than that quintet.

As of last Friday, the AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs were attracting the bulk of pregame Super Bowl bets. That’s in a vast majority of states in which the major online sportsbook operators do business.

Same-Game Parlays Could Be Huge

EKG estimated that same-game parlays could account for up to 25% of Super Bowl handle this year.

We think the number will be even higher at FanDuel and a tick below at DraftKings,” EKG noted.

The firm added that 50% of revenue for those operators during conference championship weekend was derived from same-game parlays. But that percentage is volatile on a week-to-week basis.