Reports Indicate Barrett is Trump’s Pick for Supreme Court, Bettors Believe Confirmation Vote Happens Before Election Day

Posted on: September 26, 2020, 01:03h. 

Last updated on: September 27, 2020, 10:57h.

Steve Bittenbender Read More
Expertise: Legislation, Sports Betting, Horse Racing.

Amy Coney Barrett will be President Trump’s pick to fill the Supreme Court seat vacated by the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. That’s according to media reports that started circulating Friday evening.

Barrett SCOTUS
Amy Coney Barrett, seen here in 2017 when she was nominated for a federal appeals judge post, may come before the Senate again in the coming weeks, but this time as a Supreme Court nominee. (Image: CSPAN)

Trump is expected to announce his Supreme Court nominee late Saturday afternoon, but the trading market on PredictIt is already moving toward the 48-year-old federal appellate court judge. Shares on her as the nominee ended the day at 96 cents, with more than 565,000 shares traded.

By 2:45 pm ET Saturday, shares were at 97 cents. PredictIt pays out correct market picks at $1 per share.

Barrett’s conservative bona fides are well established. She served as a clerk for late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia shortly after graduating from Notre Dame Law School. According to ScotusBlog.com, she’s also been a member of the Federalist Society on at least two occasions.

She’s been on the US 7th Circuit Appeals Court since late 2017. While she received some bipartisan support in the Senate for that post, it’s unlikely Barrett will get any Democratic support this time around.

Trading Available on When Barrett SCOTUS Vote Happens

The question now becomes when the Senate will vote to confirm Barrett.

While some have called out Republicans for the move, especially in comparison to the Merrick Garland nomination that withered for most of 2016 after Scalia’s death, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said there’s a clear distinction between what happened four years ago and now.

Americans re-elected our majority in 2016 and expanded it in 2018 because we pledge to work with President Trump and support his agenda, particularly his outstanding appointments to the federal judiciary,” the Kentucky Republican said last week in a statement. “Once again, we will keep our promise.”

On Monday, PredictIt established a market for when the Senate will vote on the next nominee. Shares for before the Nov. 3 general election slowly climbed through the week, going from 65 cents on Monday to 80 cents Friday, with most of the trading taking place early in the week.

Shares dipped a little Saturday afternoon, trading 78 cents. Shares for Nov. 3 to Jan. 2 were trading at 16 cents, while shares for Jan. 3-19 were 2 cents, and on or after Jan. 20, the presidential Inauguration Day, were at 5 cents.

Smarkets Offers Similar Odds in UK

PredictIt is the only legal market in the US for political trading. However, political betting in Great Britain and other countries is legal, and those jurisdictions are taking wagers on the Supreme Court pick.

British-based Smarkets has halted trading on who the nominee will be, with odds on Barrett at -5000, which means a $5,000 bet would net $100 in winnings. Those odds also equal an implied probability of 98 percent.

Smarkets is still accepting bets on its trading portal for when the next justice will be sworn. Odds on that happening before Nov. 2 are at -323, while a swearing in ceremony between Nov. 3 and Jan. 19 is trading at +245. After Jan. 20, shares are at +1050.