Rush Street Interactive Mexico Move Expands Addressable Market, Says Analyst

Posted on: February 2, 2022, 01:25h. 

Last updated on: February 3, 2022, 09:34h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.

On Monday, Rush Street Interactive (NYSE:RSI) said it’s entering Mexico’s gaming market through an agreement with media conglomerate Grupo Multimedios. A sell-side analyst believes the move could be a boon for the operator.

Rush Street Interactive
Rush Street Interactive staff virtually ring the bell at the New York Stock Exchange last year. An analyst is bullish on the company’s move into Mexico. (Image: YouTube)

In a note to clients, Roth Capital’s Edward Engel notes that with investors focusing so intently on the US sports betting market, the Latin America opportunity set isn’t fully appreciated.

We estimate Mexico’s online gaming industry generates gross gaming revenue (GGR) of ~$450 million annually, although that includes both licensed and gray market operators. Mexico’s population of 130 million is more than double Columbia’s 50 million, where Columbia offers ~$200-250 million in online GGR,” said the analyst.

RSI is already operational in Colombia after debuting in South America’s third-largest economy in 2018. The gaming company generated about $40 million in annualized revenue there in the third quarter of last year, according to Engel.

For RSI, Lots to Like in Latin America

The Roth Capital analyst estimates RSI can achieve a five percent to 10 percent market share in Mexico compared to 20 percent in Colombia.

That implies incremental revenue of $20 million to $40 million to go with $40 million in Colombia, underscoring that there is significant sports wagering potential in Latin America. Likely owing to home country bias, many US investors aren’t aware of the wagering opportunity set in Latin America. However, it could be significant and particularly rewarding for early movers such as RSI.

“We believe LatAm offers a $3 billion addressable market, which includes regulating markets such as Brazil and Argentina,” adds Engel. “Brazil already legalized online sports betting in 2018, although the expected 2022 launch continues to face delays. We believe Argentina is RSI’s next opportunity, where several provinces, including Buenos Aires, have already regulated.”

The combined population in Latin American countries where sports betting is regulated is 365 million. Brazil and Mexico are the region’s two largest economies.

RSI Outlook

Shares of RSI tumbled 48 percent over the past 90 days after takeover speculation never came to fruition, and as rumors emerged that some other gaming companies may be mulling sales of their sports betting assets. The stock is down 34.12 percent year-to-date, though it’s higher by almost 21 percent over the past week.

Roth’s Engel remains constructive on the name, reiterating an “outperform” rating while paring his price target to $17 from $24. The new forecast still implies upside of almost 70 percent from the Feb. 2 close.

“While we believe RSI offers a superior platform, tech capabilities, and market access, the alternatives offer lower price tags. We push our take-out expectations closer to 2023, which would coincide with some rationalization in industry marketing spend and open the door to new entrants, such as Fanatics and ESPN,” concludes the analyst.