Sen. Mark Kelly Emerges as Betting Front-Runner for Kamala Harris Ticket

Posted on: July 26, 2024, 10:14h. 

Last updated on: July 26, 2024, 10:21h.

Devin O'Connor @CasinoorgDevinO Read More
Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Commercial Gaming, Legislation, Politics.

United States Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Arizona) has emerged as the odds-on favorite to be picked by Vice President Kamala Harris as her running mate for the 2024 presidential election.

Mark Kelly VP odds Kamala Harris
US Sen. Mark Kelly waits to speak during a news conference at the Arizona Capitol in Phoenix on Nov. 7, 2022. Kelly is presumed to be a betting favorite to run with Kamala Harris during the 2024 presidential election. (Image: AP)

Harris assumed the Democratic Party’s nomination this week following President Joe Biden’s historic exit. Biden’s decision to drop out came after many in his party questioned his mental fitness to serve another four years.

During his June debate performance against former President Donald Trump, Biden seemed to labor to express his thoughts and articulate coherent, complete sentences. With Harris poised to formally accept her party’s nomination for president next month at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, all eyes are focused on who the vice president will choose as her vice presidential candidate.

Bettors Like Kelly

On political exchanges, which allow those who believe they’re politically savvy and able to foresee the outcomes of elections and political events, bettors are taking stock in Kelly being Harris’ man. Several leading peer-to-peer political wagering exchanges have Kelly’s stock at implied odds of around 40%.

Pennsylvania’s Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is next at around 25%. Other contenders include North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) at 13%, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 7%, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) at 6%. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) is another popular pick at 5%.

At UK sportsbooks that are permitted to offer lines on political outcomes — something not the case in any regulated sports betting market in the US — Kelly is the Democratic VP favorite at +110, which implies a likelihood of about 48%. William Hill has Shapiro at +225 and Cooper at +500.

If bettors are right that Kelly is the man for the Harris campaign, a $100 wager would net $110.

Kelly has served in the US Senate since assuming office in December 2020. He won the special election a month prior that arose following the death of longtime Sen. John McCain (R).

Kelly flipped the seat blue for the first time since 1962 and won reelection in 2022. Kelly is a former naval aviator and astronaut who completed four missions to space in 2001, 2006, 2008, and 2011. He logged a total of 54 days in orbit.  

Kelly is married to former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords (D-Arizona), who was shot and nearly killed during an assassination attempt on Jan. 8, 2011. Six people died in the Tucson shooting, including federal judge John Roll. The gunman later pleaded guilty and was sentenced to life plus 140 years in federal prison.

Trump Maintains Advantage

Democrats are rallying around Harris, but as of now, the odds suggest Trump is the betting front-runner.

Political wagering markets suggest Trump has around a 60% chance of winning on November 5. Trump maintains a betting lead in several key swing states, including Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Polls have things a bit closer.

According to the most recent polling average compiled by Real Clear Politics, an online polling data aggregator, Trump maintains a 1.9-point advantage over Harris. However, two more recent polls from Morning Consult and Reuters/Ipsos show Harris with as much as a two-point lead.