Smarkets Betting Shows Macron Retaining Power over France

Posted on: February 15, 2022, 11:06h. 

Last updated on: February 15, 2022, 11:36h.

Erik Gibbs Read More
Expertise: Asia Pacific Gaming, Gaming Business, Global Gaming.

The first round of voting in French politics is less than two months away. It’s still too early to know who will win, but Smarkets money is on Emmanuel Macron retaining power over the country.

Emmanuel Macron
French President Emmanuel Macron at a speech in Belfort, France. The incumbent leader has a good chance of retaining power in April. (Image: South China Morning Post).

France is zeroing in on its presidential election. Only 50 days separate today from the first round of voting, and Emmanuel Macron is currently out in front. As long as he can avoid a partygate scandal, or something similar, he will likely stay put.

Macron Holds Safe Lead

Smarkets bettors have Macron safely in the lead, according to the latest information. His odds on the betting exchange sit at 77%, the highest they have been so far.

[Macron’s] odds were 57% two months ago but have now hit 77% as his rivals’ campaigns seem to be faltering,” said Smarkets Head of Political Markets Matthew Shaddick.

Macron is gaining while other candidates suffer extreme drops. Previously, Valérie Pécresse, President of the Regional Council of Île-de-France, appeared to be the most likely candidate to challenge the incumbent. However, her odds are now at 10%, down 13% from where they were when she appeared last December.

Eric Zemmour, a former journalist who now looks down on the journalism community in his campaign platform, is beginning to lose ground as well. Not even support from former President of the United States Donald Trump has helped.

Zemmour isn’t winning any friends. He has openly announced his support for a ban on a call to prayer. This doesn’t only offend Muslims, but is a violation of France’s constitution. Once given odds of 16% to win, Zemmour would only have a 6% chance if the elections were held today.

There’s one candidate that could still cause trouble for Macron. She did it before as well. Marine Le Pen and Macron faced each other in 2017 in the second round. However, the President of the National Rally is only getting odds of 6.06%.

Still, she’s the favorite – at 49.5% – to be one of the final two candidates. She was in a position to win in 2017 before Macron arrived and upset the numbers.

Macron Could Follow Chirac

Jacques Chirac was France’s president from 1995 to 2007. He won his second term in 2002, the last time a sitting French president remained in power. He also beat another Le Pen – Marine’s father, Jean-Marie.

If Macron wins the election, he will be the first to stay for a consecutive term since Chirac. The world will be watching when the French take to the polls this April.

French voters vote on Sundays that are two weeks apart. France’s two-round voting system is similar to that of Portugal, as well as countries in Central and Eastern Europe, South America, and Africa.

Technically, a French president can win office in one round of voting if he or she receives more than 50% of the vote on the first Sunday. However, no candidate has ever pulled this off. In practice, the winner is determined by the second-round vote between the two finalists with the highest number of votes.

The first round of voting will be on April 10. The second round will follow on April 24.