MLB Home Run Derby: Schwarber Leads the Way, but Traders Say Raw Power Isn’t Everything

Kyle Schwarber is attracting the most betting action as some of the most dynamic hitters in Major League Baseball (MLB) step up tonight (July 13) at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia for the MLB Home Run Derby.

The Home Run Derby has evolved from an All-Star Week sideshow to a marquee television event, regularly attracting 5-7 million viewers, making it one of the most-watched telecasts of the MLB season.

Schwarber Leads Betting Action

The event starts tonight (July 13) at 8 p.m. ET on Netflix. The Home Run Derby field this time out features:

• Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (32 home runs in 2026, +280 at DraftKings)
• Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (28, +330)
• Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox (20, +650)
• Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals (22, +700)
• Jac Caglianone, Kansas City Royals (15, +700)
• Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (20, +900)
• Ben Rice, New York Yankees (29, +1100)
• Willson Contreras, Boston Red Sox (20, +1700)

According to Adam Landeka, theScore Bet vice president of sportsbook trading, Schwarber has attracted the most bets, followed by Caminero.

“Harper has been pacing a bit behind what we might have expected, around the middle of the road, bet-wise, with some of the shorter odds players taking on more of the bets,” he said.

Format Shapes Betting Odds

Landeka said the biggest misconception around the event from a betting perspective is that home run leaders during the season will automatically be the best home run hitters in the Derby.

“There’s also the format to consider,” he said. “Eight players in the first round, with the top four going to a bracketed semi-final. So your odds can be heavily impacted by who you end up facing off with in your semi-final.”

Swing Mechanics Matter

At theScore Bet, Schwarber is at +275, with Caminero at +300, then Walker at +550.

“When setting odds, we look into factors like average exit velo/highest exit velo,” said Landeka. “We also like to look at players with slightly less movement and more compact/short swings, as they have less of a chance of tiring out and can sustain consistent swing profiles. If a player has some experience in the contest, that is also considered, as it’s a unique event.”

Eric Biggio, Caesars Sportsbook head of baseball, said betting on the event grows every year.

“I think the timing, with not much else on the betting calendar today, makes it a fun event where people can put some pizza money on a guy at 5-10/1 to win, and it’s a fun watch,” he said. “The second part seems too simple, but people love homers. So, an event where that’s the goal, and add the betting element to it, goes hand in hand.”