Thailand Casinos Could Deliver $15B in Annual GGR, Says Research Firm

Posted on: July 30, 2024, 10:28h. 

Last updated on: July 30, 2024, 10:54h.

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Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.

Thailand is inching closer to approving casino gaming and, assuming that happens, the market there could be worth north of $15 billion in annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) terms when fully ramped.

Thailand Casinos
An aerial view of Bangkok. CLSA believes the Thai casino market could top $15 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR) at maturity. (Image: New York Times)

That’s the take of CLSA, which estimates the Thai casino market could swell to $15.1 billion in yearly GGR over the long term. Should that forecast be reached, Thailand would be the third-largest gaming jurisdiction in the world, trailing only Macau and Nevada. In terms of visitation, CLSA sees Thailand gaming venues rivaling counterparts in Singapore.

We consider Singapore a good proxy for Thailand due to similarities in geography, visitor mix and overall appeal as a travel destination,” according to the brokerage firm.

Like Singapore, Thailand has long been a favored destination for Chinese tourists — a status that could increase with the addition of casinos. Should the Southeast Asian nation add regulated gaming venues, average yearly spend per visitor could rise to $386, which is comparable to what tourists drop annually in Singapore, according to CLSA.

In Thailand, More Comparisons to Singapore Casinos

Thailand is currently in the process of accelerating the approval of entertainment districts, which would include gaming venues. Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin reportedly wants policymakers and the Ministry of Finance to expedite the process so that the first casinos in that country could open ahead of the expected 2030 debut of MGM Osaka.

Previously, some analysts speculated that Thai gaming regulations might not be conducive to wooing big-name US-based operators such as Las Vegas Sands, MGM Resorts International, and Wynn Resorts, but Thailand’s proposed tax rate of 17% could prove too alluring to ignore.

Should that be the percentage implemented on GGR in the country, that could imply earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margins of 40% or more. CLSA noted that’s comparable to the margins generated by Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa — Singapore’s two integrated resorts.

On the basis of 40% EBITDA margins, that implies $805 million in EBITDA per entertainment complex featuring a gaming venue, meaning return on invested capital of nearly 24% is possible with a ramping period of four years, added the research firm.

Macau Can Withstand Thai Casino Competition

While Chinese tourists regularly flock to Thailand, CLSA believes Macau with its geographic advantages will remain sturdy in the face of new competition in Southeast Asia.

Macau will likely remain resilient considering its close proximity to China and much shorter length of stay than Thailand (different purposes of travelling),” concluded the research firm. “The key issue for Macau is still the lack of new land and hotel supply, rather than insufficient demand.”

CLSA added that India will be another major driver of international visits to Thailand. Currently, there are nearly 400 weekly flights from Delhi to Bangkok. The flight time from Banglore to Bangkok is two hours and 10 minutes compared to three hours and 35 minutes from Beijing to Macau.