Kentucky Derby 146: How Low Will Tiz the Law’s Odds Go After Tuesday’s Post Draw?

Posted on: September 1, 2020, 02:11h. 

Last updated on: September 1, 2020, 11:10h.

Steve Bittenbender Read More
Expertise: Legislation, Sports Betting, Horse Racing.

Barring any last-minute changes, it appears a field of 18 will enter Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. On Tuesday morning, post positions will be drawn for the 146th running of the premier horse race for 3-year-olds, and regardless of where he ends up, Tiz the Law will be the commanding morning-line favorite once Churchill Downs officials complete the pill pull.

Tiz the Law Kentucky Derby
Tiz the Law, seen here in a workout Saturday morning at Saratoga Race Course in New York, will likely be one of the lowest-price Kentucky Derby favorites in recent memory. (Image: Susie Raisher/NYRA)

Ed DeRosa, a handicapper for TwinSpires.com, said he expects the Barclay Tagg-trained colt to be the lowest-price morning-line favorite in nearly three decades. Tiz the Law has raced four times this year, all graded stakes races, and he’s hit the wire first in each of them. DeRosa forecasts Tiz the Law to be the 7-5 favorite, which would be the largest favorite since Arazi in 1992.

Arazi started at 6-5 and was bet down to 4-5 by race time, the last Derby favorite to go off at less than even-money odds. The colt didn’t live up to the hype as he finished eighth.

DeRosa doesn’t expect Tiz the Law, who won the Belmont Stakes in June, to match Arazi’s fate.

Tiz The Law is virtually bomb-proof and only bad luck is going to stand in the way of him and a Derby victory,” the handicapper said.

The draw begins at 11 a.m. ET Tuesday. Fox Sports 2 will air the event live nationally.

Finding Value in Art

Interestingly, DeRosa,  in ranking the Kentucky Derby contenders on his Twitter page, actually ranked Tiz the Law second among his Derby contenders behind Art Collector, a late-emerging horse to the Derby scene who also is 4-for-4 this year.

DeRosa told Casino.org over the weekend that the colt, trained by Tommy Drury, presents a better value, odds-wise. He forecasts morning-line odds for Art Collector and Honor A. P. at 8-1. No other horse on DeRosa projected board is lower than 10-1.

I do think Tiz is the most likely winner, but at their likely prices, I think Art Collector is the better bet,” DeRosa said.

UPDATE (8:50 am ET 9/1) – Marty McGee of The Daily Racing Form reports Art Collector will not race in the Kentucky Derby. DeRosa’s updated morning-line projections are below.

In a workout, Saturday at New York’s Saratoga Race Course, where he won the Travers Stakes last month, Tiz the Law breezed five furlongs in 59.21.

“He came back well,” Tagg said. “It may have been a little faster than he needed to go, but the track was very fast, too. It went perfect.”

The horses, with DeRosa’s projected odds, expected to be entered into the 1-1/4-mile Derby are (jockey’s name in parentheses): Tiz the Law 4-5 (Manny Franco); Authentic 8-1 (John Velazquez); Honor A. P. 6-1 (Mike Smith); Ny Traffic 20-1 (Paco Lopez); King Guillermo 20-1 (Samy Camacho); Thousand Words 15-1 (Florent Geroux); Max Player 15-1 (Ricardo Santana Jr.); Enforceable 50-1 (Adam Beschizza); Major Fed 30-1 (James Graham); Storm the Court 50-1 (Julien Leparoux); Attachment Rate 50-1 (Joe Talamo); Sole Volante 50-1 (Luca Panici); Finnick the Fierce 50-1 (Martin Garcia); Winning Impression 50-1 (Joe Rocco Jr.); Necker Island 40-1 (Miguel Mena); Mr. Big News 50-1 (Gabriel Saez); Money Moves 30-1 (Javier Castellano).

Tiz the Law is expected to arrive in Louisville on Tuesday. Ny Traffic and Money Moves are expected to make the flight with the presumptive Derby favorite.

Gamine Favorite After Oaks Draw Monday

On Monday, Churchill Downs held the draw for Friday’s Kentucky Oaks, a top race for 3-year-old fillies. The race will likely shape up as a contest between two horses Gamine, trained by Bob Baffert, and Swiss Skydiver, who finished second in the Kentucky Derby prep Blue Grass Stakes to Art Collector.

In the nine-horse field, Gamine drew post five, and oddsmakers installed her as the morning-line favorite with even-money odds. The filly has won her last two races, both stakes races, by a combined 25-3/4 lengths.

“Being in the middle is always good,” Baffert said. “Right now, the most important thing is that she ships well, that she relaxes, gets in there and breaks well. She’s training really well. We still have a few more hurdles, I’m happy with that spot.”

Swiss Skydiver got the inside gate and is the second choice at 8-5. Trained by Kenny McPeek, she’s won her last four races against fillies, the last being the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga. That race went 1-1/4 miles, where the Oaks will go just 1-1/8 miles.

“I’d rather have the one than the nine,” McPeek said about the draw. “It’s out of my hands. We’ll just let Tyler (Gaffalione) do his thing. He’s a great jock. We’ll probably just let her run into the first turn.”