Trader Talk: Betting Odds in Canada Shift Back to Trump One Week from Election

Posted on: October 29, 2024, 12:22h. 

Last updated on: October 29, 2024, 12:25h.

Mark Keast Read More

Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.

Betting in Canada on the U.S. Presidential election scheduled for Nov. 5 is back in former President Donald Trump’s favor, looking at a variety of sportsbooks offering markets on the upcoming vote.

Who knows where we’ll be end of week, and through the weekend. That’s how much the odds have shifted back and forth since Vice President Kamala Harris assumed the Democratic Party mantle after President Joe Biden stepped out of the race in July.

Odds Shifted Back to Trump After VP Debate

Not all sportsbooks are offering markets on the election, of course. BetVictor this morning has Trump at -188, Harris at +150. BetMGM this morning has Trump at -189, Harris at +150. The OLG’s Proline has Trump at -182, and Harris at +145. FanDuel Canada has it Trump -196, Harris +158.

The last few weeks have seen Trump gradually edge ahead of Harris in the betting,” said David Merry, a trader with BetVictor. We have seen quite steady support for Trump, and he is now down to 8/15 (-188) from 11/10 (+110) a month ago. Trump has also been well supported for the Popular Vote Winner from a high of 3/1 (+300) to his current 13/8 (+163).

BetMGM: 87% of Money On Trump

“The Ontario bets have mainly been for Trump with lots of small $10 CAD bets but also 4 v $500 CAD+ bets. We have, however, seen support for Harris increase in the last few days as her price has drifted to 13/8 (+163). I expect interest to increase considerably in the week ahead. Given the polls are consistently extremely close I’m a little surprised that Trump is now so short and don’t expect him to shorten much from his current mark.”

Today in the news, Trump tore into Harris and the Democratic administration from Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach for what he calls their failures at the border, a rise in migrant crime and gangs, and calling out inflammatory language used against him and his campaign which he says might spark another assassination attempt. Trump is seen to be lacking in the female vote, with Harris seen as lacking in the male vote. She has yet to accept an offer from Joe Rogan to go on his podcast. Or Rogan declined her interview conditions. Whatever media outlet you subscribe to has their respective spin on those negotiations. Rogan’s podcast audience of 14 million people is comprised of 81% males.

Betting Expected to Intensify Up to Next Tuesday

A spokesman from Proline reports that 52% of money is on Donald Trump, 35% of money is on Kamala Harris and the rest is split between fellow candidates. Trump closed the gap after the Vice Presidential debate, with both Trump and Harris even at the same odds. Since then, Trump’s odds have been moving in his favor as he is the current betting favorite.

According to a spokesman from BetMGM, after the Trump-Harris debate in September, odds shifted in Harris’ favor (-120), with Trump at +100. Odds have steadily shifted back in Trump’s direction.

Since Biden dropped out in July, 53% of bets and 13% of money at BetMGM is on Harris, 47% of bets, 87% of money is on Trump.