Trader Talk: The Possible Return of UFC’s Conor McGregor

Posted on: October 11, 2024, 01:10h. 

Last updated on: October 14, 2024, 08:27h.

Mark Keast Read More

Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.

A quick scan of the Conor McGregor UFC headlines offers both fans and bettors some tasty nuggets:

In an interview this week, McGregor says he’s eyeing UFC fights next year: “I’d like to square it away with Michael Chandler. We’ve had our beef. It’s not settled”.

McGregor says a few names are being discussed, including Nate Diaz and Dustin Poirier.

“The dust isn’t settled with Dustin, it’s 1-1-1 [record between the two fighters]. The Diaz one is also 1-1. Two big blockbuster matches, and I am excited to get them locked in.”

Almost Four Years Since Last McGregor Bout

McGregor’s last UFC fight took place on June 10, 2021, when he suffered a broken leg in a loss to Dustin Poirier.

White has already said McGregor won’t fight in 2024. The fighter he was supposed to be going up against, lightweight Michael Chandler (23-8-0), has grown tired of waiting and will jump back into the Octagon on November 16 at UFC 309 in Madison Square Garden in New York, facing off against Charles Oliveira (34-10-0).

Betting on UFC Grew as McGregor’s Popularity Soared

Since joining the UFC in 2013 McGregor posted a seven-win streak through March 2016, before losing to Diaz by submission. His presence in the UFC galvanized the betting product over the years, according to BetVictor trader Mark Collier. The sport was nicely building popularity in the years before McGregor’s rise, but was “streets behind” more conventional boxing.

Numbers for the larger mixed martial arts cards were one-tenth of a showcase boxing event,” said Collier. “The only advantageous factor for UFC were that bouts were more structured (off times) and focused on the entire card, not just one fight, which is common in boxing.”

The more popular UFC fighters when McGregor came on the scene included Jon Jones and Ronda Rousey. Jones was too inactive, and Rousey finished too quickly, he added.

Betting on McGregor Started to Fade in 2020

“I personally remember McGregor’s 67-second humbling of Marcus Brimage in Sweden [April 2013] being a huge surge in turnover with punters ignoring the 4/7 bout price and just piling on the 6/4 Conor KO/TKO/DQ,” Collier recalled. “This was not to mention, a similar influx on McGregor in Round 1, which absolutely demonstrated both his impact and his adaptability to UFC from the lesser UK franchise Cage Warriors.

From the time he joined the promotion, “It was a solid two-year period of Conor picking off the featherweight division with the only favorable moment for the bookie being when he appeared to break his wrist against Max Holloway, Collier said.

Now, the focus is on when — and if — McGregor comes back, and no one is following closer than sportsbook traders.

“With the exception of maybe the Dennis Siver bout in Boston (January 2015, where McGregor was 1/6), I can’t recall the bout betting ever being massively in favor of McGregor even with bouts mainly being located in Ireland,” Collier said. “He was always installed as a marginal favorite (from 4/9 – 8/11 marks), so it always felt like the Vegas line respected the ‘Notorious’ hype train, but the general opinion was that the likes of Poirier, Holloway, and Chad Mendes would expose his less-than-perfect ground game.”

Legacy is in Question

The McGregor hype reached its saturation point during the Floyd Mayweather boxing exhibition fight in 2017 and the Khabib Nurmagomedov UFC fight (loss by submission) in October 2018. The betting momentum had started to turn when McGregor lost to Diaz by submission in March 2016 (McGregor then would defeat Diaz by majority decision in August 2016).

“The boxing bout for sheer volume surpassed both Diaz fights, Eddie Alvarez, and even the Aldo title win,” Collier said. “I believe the betting increases on the Mayweather bout was simply due to the nature of the sport crossover and people’s curiosity more than expecting a classic.”

Betting interest really cooled off after McGregor’s return to MMA in 2020, with the Donald Cerrone fight in January 2020 (a TKO win) generating “significantly lower” betting numbers, and the Dustin Poirier fights in 2021 and 2023 seeing an increase in turnover.

It’s safe to say, even now, when McGregor’s name is attached, we know that it will be popular so a good opportunity to create turnover and increase activation of clients,” Collier said.

Traders from other sportsbooks concur.

“If or when Conor fights again, it would be the biggest fight of the year. He draws a lot of action from casual fans,” a trader from BetMGM told us.

Money Won’t be the Draw for McGregor

One last title run with measured success after the Poirier and Diaz wins and losses would cement McGregor’s legacy, from a fighting perspective, and bring in the Hall of Fame debate. He certainly doesn’t need the money. That wouldn’t be the draw.

If McGregor were to fight again, the four-year gap might have a counter effect, meaning we see higher turnover, but feel the scale of this will reflect the opponent,” Collier said.

“If he fights Chandler, which is arguably a closely traded betting line, then this might govern higher turnover. A set-up fight like he did against Cowboy Cerrone might not hold a lot of weight, but no doubt would generate an above-average type of business for us.”