Trader Talk: Bulk of the Money on 58-Year-Old Tyson for Friday’s Fight

Posted on: November 14, 2024, 08:29h. 

Last updated on: November 14, 2024, 10:11h.

Mark Keast Read More
Expertise: Canadian Gaming, iGaming, Las Vegas, Sports Betting, NFL, Boxing, UFC.

There’s currently a lot of betting buzz around Friday’s Mike Tyson-Jake Paul heavyweight fight, with the 58-year-old Tyson seeing the bulk of the backing.

Mike Tyson and Jake Paul will square off Friday night in Dallas. (Image/Getty for Netflix)

The fight is controversial, to say the least. Tyson hasn’t had a sanctioned fight since 2005 and, the last time these two were supposed to fight – last July – Tyson had to back out because of an ulcer issue. Meanwhile, Paul, 27, is a YouTuber who’s had only 11 fights, 10 of which he’s won.

Is he a novelty fighter? Tyson Fury has called him a “decent boxer”, according to ESPN.

Paul will reportedly make $40 million for Friday night’s tussle while Tyson will earn $20 million.

Eight-Round Fight

The fight will be held at AT&T Stadium in Dallas and broadcast on Netflix for those subscribers (start time 8 p.m. EST). The fight is sanctioned in Texas as a pro bout, so the result will go on the boxer’s record (Tyson is 50-6, 44 KOs, and Paul is 10-1, 7 KOs).

There will be eight, two-minute rounds and the fighters will be using 14 oz gloves, rather than the usual 10 oz gloves for boxers in their weight class (154 pounds and up). Going with the 14 oz gloves will lessen the impact of the punches.

Past reporting on Tyson working out showed a man in great shape who went eight rounds with Roy Jones Jr. in an exhibition four years ago. Tyson went the distance in that contest (split draw).

Broadcast on Netflix

The ethics of allowing a 58-year-old man to step into a boxing ring with a man 30 years younger than him is debatable. Tyson’s reflexes and his ability to avoid a punch at 58 years of age is an obvious concern, as is the impact that shots to the head might have on a person that old. “Iron Mike” told BBC Sport at Tuesday’s media workout that he’s “just fine,” and that his health isn’t a concern.

No one is taking it easy on me. They want to see if I quit or not and I’m still here. All the training is over now. The fight is the party, the training is preparation, but the fight is the party.”

One might be a little surprised at how betting is trending for the fight.

“Punters seem to be predominantly backing for Iron Mike,” said Mark Collier, a trader with BetVictor. “Bout line seems to be holding around the 9/4 mark (+225), but ultimately, punters are focusing on the KO/TKO, which at this point is only a point higher than the bout (we are currently 5/2, or +250).

Like most people’s thinking – the consensus is that Tyson will come out swinging then his age will naturally make him slow down, Collier added. With Jake Paul the fresher, younger fighter — and of course more active — his Decision price (+275) is one I’d be tempted by. But let’s be honest, and I’m pretty sure the other traders will agree, this Fake Boxing is an absolute circus.”

Alex Rella, a senior trader at BetMGM added, “We expect the Jake Paul-Mike Tyson fight to be the most bet on boxing match in BetMGM history. Bettors want to see Paul get knocked out and love Tyson as an underdog. The book will be rooting for Paul to win.”

A trader at FanDuel added that the sportsbook is offering a variety of prop bets on Friday fight.

Of note, DraftKings’ most popular player props are:

  • Method of victory – Mike Tyson to win by points or decision
  • Round betting – Mike Tyson to win Round 1
  • Round betting – Mike Tyson to win in Round 3
  • Round betting – Mike Tyson to win in Round 2
  • Mike Tyson to win in 60 seconds.

Despite the props all leaning Tyson’s way, Paul remains the odds-on favorite at DraftKings.

Back at BetVictor, Collier said the volume of business has been larger than usual, and it’s hard to predict how popular the fight will be on the betting end.

“Off time is projected to be around 5 a.m., however with it being the legend that is Mike Tyson, we might see solid turnover considering the unsocial timing of the event,” he said. “In comparison to when Jake Paul fought Tommy Fury (2023, won by Fury a split decision), I’d confidently say that it won’t reach the dizzy heights of that one.”

Odds Favor Paul

As of Thursday morning, BetVictor’s odds have Paul at -175 to win and +900 for a draw while Tyson is at +175 to win.

At BetMGM, it’s Paul -190, Draw +900, Tyson +188. DraftKings, meanwhile, has Paul at -200, Draw at +750, and Tyson at +160.