VEGAS BETTING REPORT: Oddsmakers Size Up Golden Knights’ Stanley Cup Chances

After coming within two victories of their second Stanley Cup championship last season, expectations for the Las Vegas Golden Knights remain predictably high, as the team prepares to open their tenth National Hockey League (NHL) season Tuesday night (Sept. 29) against the Chicago Blackhawks at T-Mobile Arena.

Sportsbooks in Las Vegas expect the Golden Knights to remain among the NHL’s heavyweights.

At Caesars Sportsbook, the Golden Knights are +400 to finish with the most regular-season points in the Western Conference, second to the Colorado Avalanche at +270.

Knights Remain Cup Favorites

Caesars has the Golden Knights at +1000 to win the Stanley Cup, after the Avalanche (+600), Florida Panthers (+650) and Carolina Hurricanes (+800). Las Vegas is -600 to make the playoffs.

Ryan Craig takes over as head coach, while Vegas must replace Pavel Dorofeyev, the team’s leading goal scorer last season, with 37, and a major cog on the power-play. 

Carter Hart enters the season atop the goaltending picture, while the Golden Knights will once again lean heavily on a veteran core led by Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Mitch Marner and Shea Theodore.

Circa Sees Small Liability

Jeff Davis, director of risk at Circa Sports, said the sportsbook currently has a small liability on the Golden Knights.

“It is important to note that at this time of the season, the amount of money that has been written into the pool is very small relative to how much will be written by the time the Stanley Cup Final arrives,” he said. 

“How we stand now is unlikely to be how we stand in June. Not just on the Golden Knights, but on all teams.”

Roster Changes Create Questions

Vegas has made the playoffs eight times in nine seasons, so bookmakers know there will be natural interest in backing them. 

The challenge when pricing them, Davis said, is separating reputation from the current team, which has no obvious replacement for the offence they lost in Dorofeyev, who was traded to the New York Rangers in June.

Vegas hopes Victor Olofsson, who signed with the Golden Knights as an unrestricted free agent on July 1, plus more offence from the defence and Eichel, will help replace Dorofeyev’s scoring.

Pricing Vegas Without Bias

“Distinguishing between recreational versus sharp action is a learned skill as a bookmaker,” said Davis. “This applies to all sports/teams, not just the Golden Knights.”

Hart seized the net late last season and played all 22 playoff games after Adin Hill struggled, while the roster’s average age this season is 29.3, compared with the league average of 27.5. Veterans Mark Stone and William Karlsson missed significant time last season.

“There is no difference in pricing the Golden Knights relative to any other teams,” said Davis. “We prefer to price all teams as we deem ‘correct.’ We will move the prices around throughout the season based on a combination of how teams are faring and what our overall win/loss record is for each team. 

Boyd Follows the Money

“As the end of the season approaches, we will have a better idea of which teams will play each other as the playoffs go on. Then we can figure out the parlay price for a team to make the playoffs and what it will be in each subsequent series.”

When it comes to setting futures, Bob Scucci, vice president of Race and Sports Operations at Boyd Gaming Corp. in Las Vegas, said they’ll generally take last season’s closing price and adjust it.

“We look at off-season acquisitions not only of the Vegas Golden Knights but also of the top teams in the NHL to see who made the best moves,” he said. 

Canadiens Lead Boyd Liability

“Ultimately, money dictates how we move the lines after posting the opening price. With the top-tier teams, there shouldn’t be much movement, as they are all between 7-1 and 12-1. Vegas Golden Knights are 11-1. We book globally (meaning we try to offer the same price at all locations around the country), so there really is not a ‘local bias’ built into the price.”

The Golden Knights are Boyd’s fourth-biggest liability behind the Montreal Canadiens, Colorado Avalanche, and Florida Panthers going into the season, he added.

“Currently, our biggest liability is on the Montreal Canadiens who opened at 30-1 and are down to 22-1,” said Scucci. “I understand the money coming in on them as they went deep into the playoffs last year, but we feel the price is fair.”