Warren Buffett: Prediction Markets and One-Day Options Are ‘Pure Gambling’
Posted on: May 4, 2026, 11:30h.
Last updated on: May 5, 2026, 05:50h.
- Warren Buffett dismisses prediction markets and one-day options as pure speculation, not investing.
- The legendary investor cautioned that modern market activity is driven by a “gambling mood.”
- ‘Oracle of Omaha’ emphasizes that true investing requires patience, focusing on long-term business fundamentals rather than short-term price movements.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reported a record $397.4 billion cash pile this weekend, though don’t expect the legendary investor to channel those funds into prediction markets.
The 2026 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting marked the first time in the company’s history that Buffett hadn’t presided over the investor gathering. CEO Greg Abel, who took over for the 95-year-old “Oracle of Omaha” in January, led the conference, but of course, all eyes were still on Buffett.
Buffett praised outgoing Apple CEO Tim Cook for turning Berkshire’s $35 billion investment in the tech company into an $185 billion position.
Berkshire brass also updated investors on their optimistic belief that its other major investments, including in Geico and BNSF Railway, are poised for positive returns in the coming years.
During his media rounds, Buffett, who has scolded day trading in the past and likened such activity to casino gambling, commented on the recent emergence of prediction markets.
Though the derivative contract markets have been around for decades, the speculative platforms have caused much controversy of late for offering trading involving world events and sports outcomes.
Buffett No fan of Prediction Markets
Buffett remains actively involved in managing Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio. During an interview with CNBC on Saturday, Buffett said he believes the stock market is currently overvalued, with casual investors trading on commission-free platforms like Robinhood driving prices higher.
The billionaire thinks individuals who engage in such trading are participating in a risky endeavor, not unlike betting in a casino.
If you’re buying or selling one-day options, that is not investing. It is not speculating. It is gambling,” Buffett said.
“There’s nobody who can explain why they’re buying an option for one day,” Buffett said, before taking a jab at prediction markets. “Unless, maybe, the fellow who made the $400,000 for knowing when we were going into Venezuela.”
The reference was to a US military member who federal authorities allege used classified government secrets regarding its January 2026 mission to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to profit hundreds of thousands of dollars by trading on a prediction market related to contracts involving Maduro’s ousting.
“We’ve never had people in a more gambling mood,” Buffett continued.
Buffett added that people looking to make quick money, whether through day trading or prediction markets, have resulted in an influx of market money.
“Prices for an awful lot of things look very silly,” Buffett said. “There’s more money around than ever.”
Casino Comments
This isn’t the first time Buffett has tied the stock market to casino gambling. In his 2024 letter to shareholders, Buffett said mobile trading apps have essentially put casinos in every home.
The casino now resides in many homes and daily tempts the occupants,” Buffett wrote.
In 2022, Buffett described the stock market as a “gambling parlor.” Buffett blamed the financial services industry for encouraging risky behavior among investors to benefit their commissions and fees.
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