Wynn Las Vegas Operations Stand Out Amid Macau Lethargy, Says Analyst

Posted on: July 11, 2024, 05:09h. 

Last updated on: July 12, 2024, 09:28h.

Todd Shriber @etfgodfather Read More
Expertise: Financial, Gaming Business, Mergers and Acquisitions.

Within the investment community, Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) is typically viewed as a Macau story because the operator’s Wynn Macau entity drives the bulk of its earnings and revenue, but that shouldn’t overshadow an increasingly bullish case for the company’s Las Vegas footprint.

Wynn Resorts
Wynn and Encore on the Las Vegas Strip. An analyst believes the operator’s Las Vegas venues will soften the blow of weakness in Macau. (Image: Luxury Lifestyle Magazine)

Comprised of Wynn and Encore Las Vegas, the operator’s Strip presence is small relative to rivals Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR) and MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM). However, Wynn’s ability to capture more business from high-end customers could bolster the investment thesis even amid some sluggishness in Macau.

We are trimming our Wynn Macau forecasts, while raising our domestic estimates. We expect Wynn Las Vegas to report another solid quarter, despite a challenging comparison, and we believe the 3Q24 has gotten off to a very strong start with continued high end strength in early July around the holiday,” wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli in a note to clients on Thursday.

Santarelli reiterated a “buy” rating on the shares while cutting his price target to $131 from $132. The new forecast still implies upside of about 55% from Thursday’s close.

Wynn Las Vegas Could Be Sturdy in Q3

The third quarter is typically the slowest period of the year for convention and group business in Las Vegas, but Santarelli believes Wynn’s overall group outlook for this year and 2025 will be strong, noting some other indicators point to strength for the operator’s Sin City casino hotels.

Those include surging baccarat revenue — a marquee indicator that affluent bettors are flocking to Wynn and Encore — and rising revenue per available room (RevPAR). Wynn’s ability to leverage nongaming amenities to drive profits and revenue is among the best in the industry, and something analysts typically pay attention to.

“Much like the first quarter, we expect non-gaming comps to again easily surpass net gaming revenue comparisons, though we do believe net casino revenue will be considerably better in the second quarter than it was in the first from a year-over-year perspective,” added Santarelli.

Wynn Macau Dealing with Softness

The overall pace of gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth in Macau this year is steady, but June was surprisingly tepid and early July data indicate more of the same could be on the way this month. That sluggishness highlights the importance of Wynn’s Las Vegas operations and Encore Boston Harbor as buffers because Macau typically drives about two-thirds of the company’s revenue.

Analysts are now restrained in their assessments of Macau GGR growth, and while price targets on gaming stocks there have been modestly reduced, Wall Street sees value in the asset class. A recent uptick in promotional activity — unlikely to be a permanent fixture — may have been the culprit plaguing Wynn Macau in recent months.

“In Macau, while market GGR outperformed our forecast for the 2Q24, we believe modest share loss at Wynn Macau, which we believe largely accrued to Galaxy, post the Andaz and Raffles Tower openings and what we believe to be a promotional push from the operator, weighed on results,” concluded Santarelli.